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Minghao Zhou

19 Jul, 4 tweets, 3 min read

Typhoon #Cempaka rapidly intensifying while drifting slowly offshore of Guangdong Province, China (#Cempaka name meaning: a type of tree with fragrant flowers 🌼 name origin: Malaysia)

#Cempaka has reached 65 kts, 977 hPa per JTWC and 38 m/s, 965 hPa per CMA, despite initial expectations to remain a tropical storm. The land-sea surface friction contrast has caused #Cempaka's most intense convection to locate in the SW quadrant with a slightly elliptic eye.

My idealized simulations showed the predictable patterns of such asymmetry induced by friction, and their possible contributions to near-shore intensification of TCs👇

https://twitter.com/minghao_zhou/status/1417336585394196482

At this point, #Cempaka is probably too close to land and have plateaued. ECMWF ensembles show that #Cempaka will perform some atmospheric gymnastics, make landfall in Guangdong and like "nope", then do a loop towards the different direction, as it's being Fujiwhara'ed by #Infa.

https://twitter.com/minghao_zhou/status/1417336585394196482

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More from @Minghao_Zhou

Minghao Zhou

@Minghao_Zhou

21 Jul

Archived content: sketch of how extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou, China was related to (1) moisture transport enhanced by the monsoon gyre, (2) deepening upper-level trough, and (3) leeward inverted trough and upslope flow. 1/n

#Henan province has seen 837 stations with 24 hour rainfall amount of 100mm+ (~4"+), 195 stations above 250mm+ (~10"+), with the bullseye centered over the state capital of #Zhengzhou, which was submerged under widespread 400~600mm totals.

Maximum hourly rain rate observed at #Zhengzhou was a staggering 201.9mm between 4-5pm local time. This is a new record for all 2418 national stations in mainland China and possibly the largest downpour in human history for a city with 10+ million population.

Read 6 tweets

Minghao Zhou

@Minghao_Zhou

20 Jul

ECMWF ensembles showing the Fujiwhara effect between Typhoon #Cempaka 🌼 and Typhoon #Infa 🎆 as the two storms were forecasted to move around each other 🌀

That is one big monsoon gyre circulation over the northwest Pacific, formed by converging easterly trade winds and westerly monsoons. It gave birth to #Cempaka and #Infa. It might give birth to more typhoons.

Typhoon #In-fa has an eye in formation this morning (meaning: "fireworks" in Cantonese 🎆 name origin: Macao). Improving structure despite some dry air issues. #In-fa is forecasted to detach from its monsoon "tail" and continue to intensify while moving towards Taiwan.