Cooler heads in Egypt and Sudan continue to prevail. But I would not be surprised if sometime soon a cyber attack on the GERD took it offline before power generation could begin. The world underestimated how regionally divisive the 2nd filling has been.
To be clear, Im not advocating any effort to attack/disable the GERD, but the quiet from Sudan and Egypt since the 2nd filling doesnt mean they are letting it go quietly. Im deeply concerned that Ethiopia's unilateral action will beget more unilateral action by the other side.
Despite modest public statements from the UNSC, tensions are only mounting in the region and there is no serious attempt to address Sudanese or Egyptian concerns. I know from contacts there that they are scenario planning multiple responses. One contemplated is cyber.
Others could well be military aid to Tigray, stoking of further ethnic tensions in Benishangul Gumuz, or direct military confrontation in Fahsaga. Despite the displays of pride and nationalism in the 2nd filling, Addis/ENDF is weak and exposed in myriad ways to counter response.

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More from @_hudsonc

1 Mar
One thing strikes me reading both this UN humanitarian assessment and the @mfaethiopia response to the US.

Abiy has painted himself into a corner he cant get out of--trapped between the need to deliver aid and defeat the TPLF. Something has to give.…
It seems from the latest @UNOCHA report that the biggest challenge is not quantity of aid, but limited access due to fighting. But because Abiy declared victory 2 months ago in his law and order operation, he is clearly not admitting that he is still struggling militarily. And..
Continues to need Eritrean and Amhara forces to stay in the fight. Admitting that would be a humiliation. Admitting that fighting is as intense as it is in many areas is as well. But its clear that withdrawing outside forces wont be possible in the near term. As such..
Read 7 tweets
25 Aug 20
Its becoming increasing clear to me that at a senior political level, Sudan's removal from the SST list is becoming bundled with the President's larger Middle East peace plan and securing normalized relations between as many Arab states and Israel as possible.
While it is true that #Sudan is moving forward on the explicit requirements (settling terror claims) and there is no explicit quid pro quo that Sudan normalize with Israel to be removed, the way Pompeo's visit to the region is being framed is as part of broader regional peace.
Moreover, the news that Sudan will be invited to a US-led, Gulf hosted Middle East peace conference suggests that it isnt enough that Sudan cast aside a dictator and got removed from the SST list, but that it also joined a US-organized Arab coalition of states friendly to Israel.
Read 6 tweets

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