Cooler heads in Egypt and Sudan continue to prevail. But I would not be surprised if sometime soon a cyber attack on the GERD took it offline before power generation could begin. The world underestimated how regionally divisive the 2nd filling has been. aje.io/kqh3wt
To be clear, Im not advocating any effort to attack/disable the GERD, but the quiet from Sudan and Egypt since the 2nd filling doesnt mean they are letting it go quietly. Im deeply concerned that Ethiopia's unilateral action will beget more unilateral action by the other side.
Despite modest public statements from the UNSC, tensions are only mounting in the region and there is no serious attempt to address Sudanese or Egyptian concerns. I know from contacts there that they are scenario planning multiple responses. One contemplated is cyber.
Others could well be military aid to Tigray, stoking of further ethnic tensions in Benishangul Gumuz, or direct military confrontation in Fahsaga. Despite the displays of pride and nationalism in the 2nd filling, Addis/ENDF is weak and exposed in myriad ways to counter response.
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