Thread by @JakeSherman

Happy Tuesday — good luck to @JeffBezos, who is beating @bresreports to space.

But we have very important business to cover on earth: Bipartisan infrastructure negotiations have kept us very busy at @PunchbowlNews.

A few highlights from this morning’s edition:

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews >@SenSchumer is giving bipartisan infra talks another day — kind of. Cloture vote tomorrow, then Thursday deadline on getting an infrastructure deal

Schumer wont get 60 unless a deal is done or damn close Wed. But alas — some more details on where we are and where were going

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer 1) Schumer can’t get 60 votes for cloture, and a bipartisan deal is nowhere close. This seems by far the most likely scenario. Both sides have turned more bearish in recent days about the prospect for an agreement.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer Dynamics shift quickly in negotiations like this one, so we’re well aware that this could all change.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer This would leave Schumer in a really bad spot. How do mods vote for a budget without a bipartisan infra deal? tough. budget swells to north of $4T.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer 2) There aren’t 60 votes for cloture, but a bipartisan deal is still possible. Ok, so let’s say talks between the bipartisan group of senators are chugging along but not wrapped up, and Schumer forces a cloture vote Wednesday and it fails.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer The Senate can’t proceed onto the bill, but a deal remains somewhat likely.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer At that point, we have a new operative question: How much longer does Schumer give the bipartisan group? He’s already given them several weeks, how much more time do they need?

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer The clock will be ticking and Schumer needs to get moving on the budget resolution and other matters, like funding the government and raising the debt ceiling. That whole governing thing.

@JeffBezos @bresreports @PunchbowlNews @SenSchumer 3) Cloture is invoked and the Senate moves forward on the bipartisan package. And here we have arrived at the least likely scenario -- somehow a deal gets wrapped up in the next few days, and Schumer gets 60 on cloture.

This would be a major win for the New York Democrat and the Senate’s moderates, yet it seems like the least plausible outcome right now.