1/6 The JVCI has been excellent throughout the pandemic. It's statement on the pros/cons of children being vaccinated is no exception. Some highlights in a short thread below... gov.uk/government/pub…
2/ It's recommendation to hold off universal vax for kids is made in the context of all adults having already received or been offered vaccination. This seems to me an important starting point - we should not vaccinate children to protect those who won't protect themselves
3/ It's overall judgment balances risk and benefit. It recommends vulnerable children be offered jabs, plus those living with vulnerable adults (most often the child's parent or guardian)
4/ Why does benefit not outweigh risk for ALL children? JVCI makes two important points. First, as those tracking yellow card data will know, there is an emerging heart inflammation issue with MRNA vaccines, esp impacting younger males...
5/ Second, Covid itself causes similar issue in a non trivial number of young children. As JVCI points out there is a risk vax could aggravate, rather than improve...
6/6 Delta likely pushes the herd immunity threshold into the high 90s. Some have been calling for children to be vaxed to achieve. The JVCI statement puts kid's interests first and urges caution. This seems right to me - especially while NPIs are available.
7/ Apologies, JCVI not JVCI

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More from @PaulNuki

1 Jul
1/4 This should liven up discussions between Boris and Angela Merkel in Downing St tomorrow...

EU vaccine passport excludes 5m Britons given Indian-made AstraZeneca jab #COVID19 telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
2/ There's nothing wrong with Indian doses but they are not authorised by the EMA and do not qualify for the EU's digitised passport launched today.

You can check if you received one by looking for the batch codes 4120Z001, 4120Z002, 4120Z003 on your vaccine card or NHS app
3/ Here's the government document that authorised the imported doses for use in the UK only, quietly changing their branding in the process gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 5 tweets
14 Jun
1/4 Latest modelling from Sage is out. Key points:

➡️Relaxation on 21 June threatens a large resurgence in infections and admissions
➡️In all scenarios, even a short delay results in a drop in hospitalisations and deaths
➡️4wk delay cuts peak in admissions by 33-50%
2/ Looking at Warwick, there's a focus on vax effectiveness against Delta. Like transmission, it makes a big difference. Default assumptions take us close to 1st peak, pessimistic ones well over it...
3/ Here is the impact of delaying Step 4 by different periods. Moving back 4 wks (yellow line) takes us below 1st wave peak for all vax effectiveness scenarios
Read 5 tweets
1 Jun
1/ Some great infographics in this piece for those interested in the challenge of vaccinating the world. A quick thread...
2/ First, the extent to which vaccine manufacturers overestimated early supply is horribly marked - and explains many a dashed expectation...
3/ On the other hand, we will - by the end of the year - have enough vaccine for everyone on Earth. No small achievement...
Read 9 tweets
30 May
1/ Lots of debate as to why ~40,000 vulnerable people died of Covid in care homes in England and Wales and who was to blame. Yet the road to this particular tragedy is well documented. A thread...
2/ First, it's important to note the cull of care home residents is a failure on the gov's OWN terms. As detailed below, Whitehall never planned to stop a new virus. But it was, from 2017, supposed to have plans in place to protect care homes
3/ How do we know there was supposed to be a plan? Because it is one of the key recommendations to have come out of Excercise Cygnus, the 2016 dry run for a pandemic. In short, Whitehall ordered itself to produce a plan for care homes assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 19 tweets
25 May
1/ Gosh, I see tomorrow's Commons spectacular is to be co-chaired by Jeremy Hunt. This is odd because in the field of pandemic planning (which he ran between 2012-2018) he is best styled as not so much as grand inquisitor but *chief defendant* ...
2/ Mr Hunt is huge on the "everything-would-have-been fine-if-it-had-been-flu" defence. This after all was the title of our plan - the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011....
3/ But this is tosh. It's no defence at all and it is important to understand why.
First, influenza comes in a huge range of different forms. It can be fast or slow, mild or devastating. This is true of seasonal flu but especially so for pandemic varieties ...
Read 8 tweets
24 May
1/ There's a lot of balls circulating about the UK's pandemic response and specifically *herd immunity*. Yet most of it is fully documented. Here's a thread pulling together some of the key points...
2/ Did the UK have a herd immunity strategy? YES, it was always the default. We had no other plan. The idea of suppressing the virus via lockdown etc was made up on the hop in late March when it became clear the NHS would be overwhelmed. Everyone knows that.
3/ Why did we not have a suppression plan? This is more interesting and the answer is that the DH/PHE/Cab Office explicitly rejected the idea when it reviewed the nation's pandemic strategy in 2010/11 assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 17 tweets

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