1/ Steve Mandel was an equity research analyst who covered retail. This comment caught my attention:

"It needs to be incrementally better. It does not have to be leaps and bounds better. That was one thing that I learned from Walmart and others in retailing"
2/ There's a scene in Amazon Unbound that talks about Bezos giving marching orders for building a physical store:

"Jeff was very particular that he didn't want to build just any store. He wanted the store to be disruptive - something that no one had attempted before"
3/ In search of a problem to solve, they decide checkout bottlenecks was a major consumer pain point. So they decided to invent "Just Walk Out" technology.
4/ "Bezos had envisioned thousands of Amazon Go stores, in urban areas around the country. Seven years into the project there were only twenty-six"
5/ I'm reminded of this scene because I was just talking to @thenewb yesterday about how it seems like Amazon originally set out to disrupt physical retail, when the world was moving towards, and their assets were best designed for, an incredible omnichannel offering
@thenewb 6/ Looking at the pieces Amazon is putting in place now, with more Fresh stores opening, Whole Foods owned, folding Prime Now into the main app, and some other infra/logistics actions they are taking, a 360 omnichannel same day/physical/next day offering seems to be taking shape
7/ Mandel's observation was also interesting because incrementalism is almost looked down upon now. When in many businesses, compounding an incremental advantage can be enough for dramatically outsized results. And sometimes disruption for the sake of it doesn't create any value.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with modest proposal

modest proposal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @modestproposal1

8 Jul
Amazon Unbound is obviously a must read. So many different topics are touched on consistent with Amazon’s sprawling nature. But feels appropriate given today’s news to dive in today on one very important for the future: grocery and last mile. This will be long and meandering…
Throughout both the Everything Store and Amazon Unbound, the importance of Bezos as a driving force behind new initiatives is clear. AWS, Kindle, Alexa all seem almost willed to be by him.

“But for years he took a more passive approach to home delivery of food”
The guy in charge of Amazon Fresh kept pushing to go faster. But “Consumer adoption of hike grocery delivery, Bezos believed, was going to be a more gradual process”
Read 16 tweets
7 Jun
some personal news, I will be selling adults only breakfast foods content...

smart launch strategy to go with existing creators. assume they will steadily lower the follower thresholds to allow newer creators to participate once the product is up and running and proved out.
Whether Super Follows, Spaces, Revue, Scroll, Blue, etc I'm more focused on engagement opportunity for Twitter than direct revenue opportunity. Help users get more utility, creators build audiences and get paid, make it a true platform . Optimizing for revenues would be silly.
People think Twitter needs alt monetization means because historic ad performance sucked. But with new tech stack and products, they too will be able to monetize engagement.

I mean, 25% higher CTR from carousel ads! This is like ads 101. Maybe remedial!

Read 4 tweets
1 Jun
Article positing Just In Time is responsible for the everything shortage.

1) in the counterfactual, what level of buffer stocks and supply redundancies would have bridged the covid shock?

2) how many businesses could absorb that capital and cost?

The rejoinder is going to be "if they couldn't afford those buffer stocks and redundancies, maybe they shouldn't be in business or should raise prices!".

Reminds me of people like "why didn't the airlines have resilience against a greater than 100% decline in revenue??".

"In the story of how the modern world was constructed, Toyota stands out as the mastermind of a monumental advance in industrial efficiency. The Japanese automaker pioneered so-called Just In Time manufacturing"

"The automaker least affected by the shortage is Toyota"
Read 4 tweets
21 May
JPM revising SPX earnings estimates to $200/$225 for 2021 and 2022
Empirical writes: “We’ve thought for some time that the earnings estimates for this year were too low, in part because the analyst community, while well acquainted with busts, has never lived through a real boom”
Rapid NGDP growth yields massive incremental margins for traditional businesses that are asset intensive and/or high fixed cost. The argument for the level of growth mattering more than rate of change is that high absolute levels mean earnings estimates remain too low.
Read 6 tweets
18 May
"Mr. Zaslav has been one of the highest-paid CEOs in American corporations... His median annual compensation over the past 10 years has been $42 million"

wsj.com/articles/tv-de… Image
AGG returned 40% since 1/1/2011 vs
DISCA 56%. TLT returned 91%.
“His compensation since 2010 has totaled more than $659 million, MyLogIQ data show.” Image
Read 4 tweets
12 May
“But a good start would be to remind everyone that we are a business. More importantly, we are a hugely ambitious one.”
“Shopify, like any other for-profit company, is not a family. The very idea is preposterous... Shopify is a team, not a family”
“We want to build one of the best companies in the world”
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!