Up until the last day or so, the market has been stuck in a fairly consistent "zone" for a bit now. It's honestly been sorta ... boring?

A thread about X.
Why did the market fall yesterday? I don't have the most compelling answer for you, but I can tell you how Alameda is thinking about things.

There's been a decent build-up of negative news, I guess -> Elon chilled on BTC, China cracked down for the nth time, GBTC unlock is maybe negative to many? And then a few other things.
The market *definitely* reacted to all this in aggregate -- I think typically the market *does* over-react and tend to revert, on both short and long timescales, but it's net gone down, so possibly there's still more impact to revert? Possibly the paradigm has shifted? IDK.
But it's definitely true that there have been fewer buyers for the past few days (duh), and maybe that's partially a reflection of the people who *are* reacting to news (at least short-term!) finally out-numbering those who are not, or who are betting on reversion.

This is kinda a sub-category of news -- the stock market did react negatively yesterday to various pieces of news about the new Delta variant of COVID. And as we learned last year, when the stock market moves off of big (esp. COVID) news, crypto follows.
... But the stock market partially recovered today, why didn't crypto recover too? Either this wasn't a big effect, or it's still going to, or, IDK, crypto is weird or something.

Won't bore you all here -- yesterday was *partially* driven by liquidations, but not a TON. Way less than I'd have guessed, really -- and the moves from those liquidations didn't really revert all the way, like I'd have thought.
In my view, all these point a similar (if vague) direction. News impact tends to revert? I'd expect crypto to rally more. Stock market *did* revert? I'd expect crypto to have reverted more, too. Liquidation moves usually revert? Same story.
So everything is pointing (weakly!) in the direction of wanting to get longer here. Futures premia are low, too, and OIs have shifted in a way where, if there IS a recovery, it could definitely trigger liquidation-driven momentum (admittedly, we're not *that* close to this).
And all these led to Alameda doing what we do best -- buying a LOT more over the past day or so. This isn't quite "sell us all you want below $30k and fuck off" territory, but we're continuing to buy down here, because it really just seems like too much points that way.
We'll see if we're right! For a quant team we do put on fairly big delta positions longish-term, and I've been glad that it's been this direction so frequently -- bull markets are way more fun.
LOL I meant to change "X" to something after I wrote the thread but forgot.

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

6 Jul
How is it possible that it was correct for this plane to board 2 hours ago and then sit on the runway because of rain they already knew about
I’m like 60% sure the pilot is gonna have worked long enough that they force us to deplane and get a new pilot in another hour or two and I’m currently arranging a bloc to charter private if that happens AMA
People are replying with too many realistic explanations I’m worried my intent here wasn’t conveyed well
Read 7 tweets
23 Jun
Word on the street is: this price graph is fucked up. What happened?

A thread about the calm, the storm, and how to tell the difference.
There have been a few prevailing narratives lately:
- China FUD driving prices down, U.S. maybe to follow?
- Bitcoin is bad for the environment, or at least Elon thinks so
- Maybe with this dip, some of the institutions who bought are under water and need to sell? (Saylor, etc.)
None of that is concrete, though, and people vacillate between over-stating the pieces of news they want to hear and under-stating the ones they don't. So let's break it down a little, and look at some stuff which *is* concrete.
Read 19 tweets
16 Jun
The macro market DOES drive crypto, but only when it has to. In March 2020, crypto had no choice but to go down with (e.g.) SPY — the whole world was watching, and when the whole world watches people will buy BTC when it lags below SPY, and vice-versa.
Honestly? Crypto traders don’t give a shit about what happens when the traditional markets aren’t going crazy. I literally couldn’t tell you which direction SPY moved .3% in (or whatever) yesterday.
But when SPY crashes 20%? Yeah, we’ve gotta follow it. And because we’re following it, our trades will follow it — not all the time, but enough for a correlation to exist.
Read 8 tweets
10 Jun
Let's look at two investors, Adam and Beth. Both are 25 years old, both make $200k/year (lump sum) and expect to keep doing so for their careers (not realistic, but let's just use that for now). Adam invests it all in a 5%/year fund, Beth's fund is 50/50 to make +30% and -10%.
By age 60, Adam will always have around $20m put away (ignoring taxes and expenses or whatever, but this is just a comparative exercise so it's OK to ignore thise) -- there's no uncertainty here.
What about Beth? Her EV on earnings each year is higher than Adam's, of course, but let's dig deeper. Let's look at her distribution of outcomes by age 60.

One natural question: what are the chances she has more money than Adam does?
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
I'll be honest -- I was dreading this conference. I'm not great at meeting strangers, I dislike much of networking, I was vaguely concerned that crypto culture might be toxic in person, and I'm not wild about public speaking. Also, Miami is so hot.
How wrong I was! I enjoyed basically the entire trip -- it managed to be productive, invigorating, sentimental, and super fun all at once.
I was pretty sure the perfect timing + chance to speak meant this was the only conference I'd ever attend, but now I doubt it.

A thread about being wrong and not really making money but "generating personal value" or something.
Read 25 tweets
4 Jun
Let’s just say @SBF_Alameda was lied to about what “Tradjng Day” was gonna be Image
“We host the world’s best athletes and the world’s best entertainers, and we’re thrilled to welcome FTX” Image
“I may be the shortest one here” Image
Read 7 tweets

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