1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to today’s likely procedural vote to break a filibuster to begin debate on the bipartisan infrastructure bill

We are expecting a procedural vote today to break a filibuster on starting debate on the bipartisan infrastructure bill.
2) This is NOT a vote on the bill itself. It’s not even a vote to break a filibuster on the bill itself. Nor is it even a vote to begin actual debate on the bill.
3) This is a test vote, to break a filibuster, on the motion to PROCEED to the bill. This is four parliamentary steps removed from actual passage.
4) The Senate needs 60 yeas to crack the filibuster. That means all 50 Democrats need to stick together and coax 10 other Republicans to vote yes.
5) The procedural vote is not expected to get 60 yeas at this writing. Republicans have carped that the bill isn’t done. Bipartisan negotiators believe they can finish the bill by midday.
6) A vote which fails to clear the filibuster hurdle could torpedo the bipartisan bill. However, it would be an embarrassment to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) if all 50 Democrats fail to vote yes.
7) Schumer’s hand is weakened if he accuses Republicans of failing to advance the measure if he can’t demonstrate unanimity on his side of the aisle. 

Republicans will accuse Democrats of not playing fair if Schumer forges ahead with the vote if the bill is not complete.
8) They will argue that they worked in good faith with the other side and it was Schumer who tossed that out the window.
9) Republicans also suspect Democrats of laying a trap for them: claiming to support a bipartisan plan…and then nuking it, claiming the GOP wasn’t willing to be bipartisan.
10) Republicans will contend the bipartisan effort was a ruse and Democrats intended to forge ahead with their own, $3.5 trillion infrastructure package from the start.
11) Schumer could still postpone the vote until things are ready. And, even if things fail to break the filibuster today, the Senate could always vote again later. Schumer has said he would make the bipartisan plan in order as an amendment to the broader infrastructure bill.
12) It has been said many times recently that a given day was “make or break” for infrastructure. That may have been occasional hyperbole. But if the Senate takes the procedural vote today, it is in fact a make or break day for the bipartisan infrastructure effort

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More from @ChadPergram

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But, what is past is prologue.
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