New! Update!

Job postings on @indeed now 36.5% above pre-pandemic baseline.

Postings rising at slower pace in May/June/July than in March/April.

At this rate, JOLTS job openings would stand at 9.8m as of last Friday.

Postings far above baseline in goods sectors: warehouse, manufacturing, and construction.

Plus HR jobs are high and climbing -- employers want to hire the people who will help them hire.

It's not just that there are more job postings. Employers are especially eager. More indicate "hiring urgently", as @AE_Konkel found in her research ...…

... plus there are more postings touting hiring incentives -- which have been on the rise especially since April.…

Postings are up even in lagging metros. San Jose has had the slowest postings recovery, but even there job postings are up more than 10% vs baseline.…

Job postings are growing more slowly in high work-from-home metros, where local businesses like retail and restaurants aren't rebounding as quickly.…

Job postings up LESS in high vaccination metros. High-vax places tend to be larger and have more jobs in WFH sectors like tech, finance, and other prof services -- places where recovery has been slower since last year.

(one more coming!)…

Since vaccines became widely available late spring, job postings have increased at similar rate in low, med, and hi vax metros.

Local diffs in pandemic economic effects driven more by local industry mix than by infections, deaths, or vax rates.


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More from @JedKolko

22 Jun
Job postings on @indeed 30.5% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of Fri 6/18.

Postings still rising, but only half as much in May & June as in March & April.

Implied JOLTS job openings now, based on recent Indeed postings growth: 9.8m…

HR job postings up sharply as employers across most sectors are eager to hire.

Earlier in pandemic, HR postings lagged as hiring plunged. Now HR postings (+52.5%) are further above baseline than postings overall (+30.5%).…

Goods-related sectors -- warehouse, manufacturing, and construction -- have the most job postings relative to pre-pandemic baseline.

A new milestone: hospitality & tourism postings are finally back up to the pre-pandemic baseline.…

Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
Job postings on @indeed 28.6% above pre-pandemic baseline, as of Fri 6/4.

Postings rose 1.1 pts per week on average in May & early June, down from 2.0 in April and 2.2 in March.

Continued growth now, but at slower pace than earlier in year.

Sign of recovery:

HR job postings up 15 pts in last 4 weeks, one of the fastest recovering sectors now.

Firms need to hire -- so they're looking for the people who will help them hire!

Another sign of recovery: job postings are above pre-pandemic baseline in all large metros. The recovery has come to Hawaii!

Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
The Friday afternoon labor market chart:
Why aren't people working?

Health reasons are high but dropping.
Temporary business slowdowns also dropping.
Retirements are up.
Caregiving hasn't budged.

More details follow ...

Health reasons include being sick with coronavirus symptoms, worried about getting or spreading the virus, and sick/disabled for other reasons.

This peaked in the December/January virus wave and has thankfully come down ... and hopefully will continue to.

Temporary business slowdowns include employer reductions in business, furloughs, or employer temporarily closed.

These, too, are dropping as more businesses reopen and ramp up.

Read 7 tweets
20 Apr
Did the pandemic upend migration patterns? Not so much! The places that gained and lost people in 2020 were pretty much the same places as in 2019.

New! in @UpshotNYT with @emilymbadger @qdbui…
Places that gained movers in the pandemic were, those that gained pre-pandemic. New York and the Bay Area stand out for losing more people in the pandemic than the year before.

The metros people moved to in 2020 (relative to 2019) were smaller vacation and resort areas, especially in NY State and New England. The top three metros where in-migration increased are all striking distance from New York City.

Read 8 tweets
15 Mar
Job postings on @indeed 8.6% above the pre-pandemic baseline. Big two-point gain in the past week.…

Pharmacy jobs way up. So are jobs that make & move physical stuff.

Some new bright spots: childcare jobs, and HR jobs (more hiring coming soon?).

But hospitality & tourism still 1/4 below baseline.…

Only 11 of the 110 half-million-plus metros are still below baseline (the list below plus Los Angeles). Gains in job postings are widespread.…

Read 4 tweets
7 Dec 20
Job postings on @indeed are 11% below last year's trend. Very slight improvement vs week ago (-11.5% vs -11.6%). Gains have slowed, especially relative to summer rebound.…

Food prep and childcare job postings have slowed in the past couple of weeks as the virus spreads. But loading & stocking jobs are well above last year's trend.…

Job postings are down most in larger, expensive metros where more people can work from home and aren't spending as much at local businesses.…

Read 4 tweets

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