Thread by @JedKolko

Did the pandemic upend migration patterns? Not so much! The places that gained and lost people in 2020 were pretty much the same places as in 2019.

New! in @UpshotNYT with @emilymbadger @qdbui

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Places that gained movers in the pandemic were, those that gained pre-pandemic. New York and the Bay Area stand out for losing more people in the pandemic than the year before.

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

The metros people moved to in 2020 (relative to 2019) were smaller vacation and resort areas, especially in NY State and New England. The top three metros where in-migration increased are all striking distance from New York City.

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Where did people leave? Big, expensive coastal metros like SF and NY. Also, oil-dependent metros (the pandemic wasn't the only thing that affected migration patterns in 2020!).

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

In SF, NY, and other coastal metros that lost people, movers came from higher-income, denser neighborhoods.

The urban parts of metro SF, NY, San Jose, Seattle, Boston, DC, and LA lost people, but their suburbs did not (except SJ).

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

It was hard to find examples of metros in decline that drew people in during the pandemic. People moved to Boise, not Buffalo. This hints that remote work won't necessarily help turn around struggling places.

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

We used Postal Service address changes, which are current and detailed ... but imperfect. A small share is temporary moves, many people move without filing this form, and we miss in-migrants from abroad -- a big part of urban growth min most years.

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…

More data are coming, including Census population estimates for July 1, 2020. And other recent research noted in the article find similar patterns. Much to watch!

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nytimes.com/interactive/20…