Share this page!

Colin Davis Profile picture
Twitter logo
21 Jul, 4 tweets, 2 min read
If you live in #Bristol it's worth knowing that the Covid rate is still growing fast (the log plot shows the rate doubling every 8 days at present). We're now #16 in the list of local authorities with highest rates (most of those higher in the list are in the NE or NW). ImageImage
In Bristol, the fastest growth is currently in 30-34 year olds (note this is a log scale). Image
"Yeah, but they're just 'cases' ".
I haven't updated this plot for a few days. On the positive side, I can detect some shifts to the right. However, I've had to expand the y-axis, which is a bad sign. Areas in south Bristol continue to be quite a concern. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Colin Davis

Colin Davis Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ProfColinDavis

Colin Davis Profile picture
23 Jul
My TL is absolutely full of people who look at this graph and *still* want to say “the link is broken” or “the link has weakened” or “the jury is out”. So let me have another go at explaining a distinction that confuses some people (and is wilfully abused by others). [THREAD]
Of course vaccines have reduced the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisation. I'm not denying that. I've published research about how important it is that we talk about the high efficacy of COVID vaccines, because this could increase vaccine uptake.bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
That research is published in the British Journal of Health Psychology (it's open access, so you can read it). bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

There's a short summary in the @ConversationUK . theconversation.com/vaccines-for-c…

So yes -- VACCINES WORK!
Read 22 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
22 Jul
This one's for Dawn ...

Anyone who wants to claim that the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken" or "severed" might like to explain why the red line (cases) and the blue line (admissions) have been moving in near-perfect synchrony since the start of June.
One of the things I was at pains to point out in this interview is that we haven't broken the link (0:25).
Some people were confused that the plot above had separate scales on the left and right. This version might help. Note that hospitalisations are actually coming 7 days later than the case specimen date; the plot takes the lag into account so you can see the lines moving together.
Read 6 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
21 Jul
Someone posted this image (with no text) in response to some info about vaccination clinics. The highlighting draws attention to there having been more deaths among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. So let's briefly review why these numbers mean *you SHOULD get vaccinated*.🧵 Image
The bottom row of the table shows that among the over-50s, there were 50 deaths among people who'd been double-vaccinated versus only 38 among those who hadn't been vaccinated. So it's better not to get vaccinated, right? Wrong! Image
This is an example of what psychologists call the base-rate fallacy. If you made this mistake, don't feel bad, because pretty much everyone does, including experienced health-care professionals who confront this problem daily. Here's some more info. thedecisionlab.com/biases/base-ra…
Read 8 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
9 Jul
Calling all epidemiologists! Public Health England needs your help to solve a puzzling mystery.

The WHO have notified the world that the #1 Covid hotspot in Europe is the North East of England.

Why there? PHE doesn't know. They don't even know *where* it's happening in the NE.
For example, last week (Week 26, 28/6 - 4/7) there were no "situations/incidents" in hospitals, educational settings, prisons, workplaces or food outlets. Not one. And yet there were 16,607 cases in the NE that week.
The week before that (Week 25, 21-27 June) there were 9,346 cases in the NE. And how many "situations/incidents" were there in hospitals, educational settings, prisons, or food outlets? None. There was a single workplace outbreak.
Read 21 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
9 Jul
Here's an update to the chart showing the Covid rate for 10-14 year olds in England. Although it's still going up (over 500 per 100K now), it's definitely slowing down.
That slow down is most apparent on a log scale. As I said before, I'm not too surprised to see this happening when hundreds of 1000s of children are having to self-isolate (other explanations are available, of course).
Oldham continues to have the highest rate for 10-14 year olds, but with over 6,000 children self-isolating last week (14% of the borough's children), the rate is finally starting to decline. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
Read 4 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
7 Jul
Here's a thread about what's happening to #Bristol's COVID rates (adults and children, and spread to different areas).

The overall rate has grown like this over the past two months. (1/7)
For context, here's what that graph looks like if we go back to August last year. It may or may not feel like it, but we're about to exceed our previous peak (of 508 per 100K). (2/7)
It was possible to predict that we'd exceed that peak some time ago, by looking at the same plot on a log scale. We can also project to where the rate will be on "Freedom Day", if we follow the same trend. It's not good. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @ProfColinDavis has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @ProfColinDavis!

Read all threads by @ProfColinDavis

:(