Thread by @ThreshedThought

It’s looks like Kandahar is entering a critical stage. Here I’m going to try and pull together various sources. STRONG CAVEAT - this is fast moving and hard to confirm

The main headline is that it appears likely that there is going to be a post-Eid push to take Kandahar by the Taliban.

Needless to say, Taliban control of Kandahar would be the most significant aspect of the war so far, by some way.

In the 1990s Mullah Omar basically ran Afg from his room in Kandahar (reportedly with a cash box that he used to dole out like sweets)

It’s also where he declared himself Leader of the Faithful and wore the Prophet Mohammad’s cloak to demonstrate his position.

Furthermore Kandahar used to be the capital of Afghanistan (in the 1700s) and is probably the most significant Pashtun city (along with Peshawar).

To cut a long story short, the fall of Kandahar would be seismic. It is a must-hold for the government.

So, what do we know about what the Taliban are doing?

Here’s the map again (you can see police districts marked - D1, D6 etc.)

As we know, the TB have got Spin Boldak, the major customs post on the way to Pakistan.

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1416277778572333056

At the moment it appears the TB hold districts 7&8, and some of district 1.

There had been some TB infiltration of D9, but that has been pushed back.

D6 has come under heavy attack over the last few days but there and in Dand/Daman the Barakzai militia have pushed them back.

Unconfirmed reports of a TB push into D5.

But INTERESTINGLY not all TB checkpoints are fully manned which leads one to think they may be suffering from a manpower issue (huge casualties recently)

And finally there are reports of a 150-man Taliban unit massing to the SW of the city. Seems like a push is imminent.

See here for a great map by the incomparable @smithkabul

https://twitter.com/smithkabul/status/1417783982813499395

There are reports of Taliban parties hunting down members of previous government militias in areas they control eg the Adozai in Spin Boldak, and maybe some Noorzai militiamen in Kand.

But what about the other side of the fence?

Well the Barakzai militias in Kandahar are fighting well and turning back the Taliban. One assumes the Achakzai are as well considering their long association with the government.

The Alikozai, who stretch from Kandahar to Sangin in Helmand have declared themselves neutral whatever that means in a world where most of the violence is driven by personal feuds and land. My guess is they’ll end up splitting.

The Noorzai are fighting on the government side. See here, Abdul Rahman Jan, notorious helmandi Noorzai kingpin, with a flesh wound being treated by the excellent @msf_helmand (donate please, they are fantastic beyond belief)

https://twitter.com/AsiaPressNews/status/1416787382687485963

So it seems there will be another push by the TB. And what seems decisive to me is government air support.

Here the news gets better for the gov. They still hold Kandahar Airfield. And it’s so close to the fighting that they can almost continuously drop munitions on the Taliban (flight times in single figure minutes, land, re-arm, take off, etc)

So obviously the gov has GOT TO hold KAF.

And they are using it to hit back. See here gov air strikes on Kandahar

https://twitter.com/RisboLensky/status/1417879274888081411

Reportedly there was also a movement of 20+ suicide bombers moving into Kandahar that was thwarted by government as well.

So what’s the analysis and summary?

This is critical for the government. They must maintain air support, and if they do, they should hold Kandahar. As the Taliban mass to take areas, the gov can strike them.

If this feels similar to Jalalabad in 1989, that’s because it is. It’s gonna be touch and go, but I think the gov will hold (just).

I would REALLY welcome comments, additions, questions etc on this thread as the days go on. I’m trying to pull together lots of info and would appreciate all your support.

And as ever, if you want to read more of my scholarship on Afghanistan (with a fucking huge discount people!):

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1416543232754733057

Update

Appears the US are stepping in with airstrikes

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1418146322373390336

CNN confirm US strikes. This changed the game. Kandahar is now off limits to the Taliban. Back to Doha for talks.

cnn.com/2021/07/22/pol…