Iran is seeing an increase in protests regarding water shortages and underlying economic weakness. Ahwaz started protesting against their economic condition (Minority Arabs- 2% of the Iran population) because they sit on some of the most resource rich acreage in the world.
Protests have increased in Khuzestan, Lorestan, and Tehran following rampant water shortages. Instead of sending water, the regime sent military equipment & personnel that have used live fire on protestors to disperse rallies.
The IRGC claims that arms have been smuggled through the region into the country providing a reason to increase their presence. They aren't wrong as the locals look to defend themselves against a corrupt regime and demanding change for their weakening economy.
Protests and riots are already occurring in Sistan as anger mounts against the IRGC and Regime following rampant inflation and devolving economic growth. While Israel strikes (again) in Syria against the IRGC Qud Force and Syrian army in Aleppo airport & at Al-Safira SSRC
The pressure is mounting on the regime to provide some support and the lack of water, food, fuel, growing inflation, and weak economy is going to drive them to eventually make a deal with the US/EU to lift sanctions and provide needed relief... but it will be too little too late.

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More from @markfny

19 Jul
Here is another escalation point that I have been pointing out since 2017.…
There is also a big political divide between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has steadily grown as the UAE withdrew from Yemen- officially ending their direct involvement in Feb 2020. Pressure was mounting between the two allies as they differed in opinion on how to proceed.
Both countries had direct involvement, but also relied extensively on proxies within Yemen- but their paths began to diverge. UAE wanted to cut involvement and their proxies were willing to make a deal/ceasefire with the Houthis in the region.
Read 7 tweets
25 May
What is the Fed's RRP (Reverse Repo Program)? The "Fed Open Market Trading Desk" sells a security (SOMO) with an agreement to repurchase it at a specified price & time in the future. It helps protect the Fed funds rate and absorbs near term liquidity. Why is this so important?
As the size of RRP increase, it usually signifies the market is saturated with liquidity and tapering will be close(6 months?) Banks have various options to invest excess liquidity, but rising gov't transfer, excess corporate cash, & limited bank loans increase cash on hand.
The Loan-to-Deposit (LDR) is Total Loans/Total Deposits, which ideally is near .8 or said a different way the bank invested $.80 of every $1 received. In the current market, the bank has made limited loans due to shrinking opportunities & returns married with MASSIVE deposits.
Read 6 tweets
23 Mar
I think it is important to highlight some underlying issues in the global crude market.
1) the physical market has been weak for months and not the "weeks" being peddled by the narrative shift
2) the bigger issue now is the rising rates at the EM level and "new" demand headwinds
We have talked about (been bearish) the emerging market world as cracks were already forming before the US 10 Yr took off. Monetary policy is already shifting tighter as Fiscal tries to remain accommodative- but costs are rising and pressuring government balance sheets.
COVID cases are rising again in some key spots limiting travel and the "normalization" of activity throughout Asia/Europe. The reduction of activity will only stress balance sheets further as jobs data/inflation impact underlying wages and spending.
Read 7 tweets

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