Trinh Profile picture
22 Jul, 21 tweets, 9 min read
Good morning! Here is Asia latest Covid cases. Graph shows net change daily & so far I hate to say this but Southeast Asia is doing rather poorly.
The Philippines is in green & net change is down from peak but still pretty high & there is fear that new Covid surge = new restrictions when it barely recovered from previous lockdowns. More fiscal likely needed. Dominguez says he is willing. Fully vaccinated only 4.4% of pop.
Philippines google mobility is not crashing yet (retail is -19% from pre Covid) but not great. For the Philippines to exit out of the current wave/restriction trap, it needs to up its vaccination rate from 4.4%.

Silver lining playbook? Hopefully the delta variant'll speed it up
Indonesia is in blue (yes, my chart is ugly but u know what speed > beauty; I can make these in like 10 seconds) & cases are going down but from a pretty high level & apparently highest in world? Not good is it. Indo > Phils but only 6% fully vaccinated, behind Asia & world.
Indo retail mobility worse than the Philippines due to restrictions that is extended till 26 July. Jokowi ratings taking a hit. Will Bank Indonesia cut to help? No, IDR already weak. No space.
Thailand is yellow & trend is not its friend. Very bad for a country that needs tourism more than most in Asia. For being more developed than PH & ID, Thailand isn't much better w/ vaccination (yep 5%), something I flagged in Q1 & not much has changed since. So? Needs to change.
Malaysia is also pretty bad & trend is upward. Yikes. But it is better than Asia & world in vaccination rate. Yep! 15%, not bad but defo not enough to open up etc so here we are. Malaysia google mobility for retail sales is the WORST -54% (Thailand -23%)
Vietnam is orangy yellow & trend is bad too. It's doing everything it can to curb it from lockdown in Saigon + Hanoi & giving vaccines to industrial parks + making people build bubble (eg sleep at work) to avoid disruption to supply chain but the virus is raging.

Vietnam has a collapse of mobility (retail sales -53% so bad like Thailand) & thus growth in Q3 is not good. It needs to up its vaccination, which is WORST in Asia, as the ZERO covid strategy is not going to work w/ such an infectious strain.

So? Expect a pickup of vaccination!
Singapore is in aqua blue - kind of like my mood - optimistic! Cases "surging" & got restrictions but also has a path out!!! ENDEMIC VS PANDEMIC. Basically vaccinate 2/3 of the pop in 2 wks & then open up to live w/ the virus like dengue fever. Mobility for retail sales only -10%
Singapore vaccination so far - did I tell you that Singapore is my silver lining playbook for Covid in Asia? If Singapore is able to exit this restriction trap via speedy vaccination, then we're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. 48% vaccindated!

South Korea got a surge of cases too & restrictions are on; but u know what, its google mobility is not bad at -5% for retail sales so I'm thinking the restrictions aren't that harsh? Anyway, its exports doing great but can't say the same for domestic consumption. Vaccination low
South Korea needs to boost its inoculation rate from 13% currently to exit out of the restriction trap as well. Hopefully it will considering it is very capable of doing so.
Wanna compare Asia vs US vs World? The US vaccination rate is on par w/ Singapore, which is pretty good at 48% as it has a much larger economy/population. Google mobility is pretty good as the economy opens up.
US new covid cases & new deaths (deaths = lagging indicator) - key here is that smudge of higher cases will result in more deaths. If not, then that means that vaccines are effective at allowing us to turn from pandemic into endemic, to borrow the Singaporean phrase.
Ok, so everyone is like wut about Israel? Isn't it a better silver lining playbook than say Singapore? Well, yes, but I wanted to use an Asian example. So Israel managed to vaccinated 61% of its population. And so? Cases still rose BUT DEATHS NOT!
I like that gap below. Me likey. Obvs deaths = lagging so let's wait and see but so far the rise of cases not MASSIVELY SURGING so don't be alarmed. Plus deaths/cases gap wide, which is good.

Hope this thread cheered u up even though trend is pretty bad for Asia, Southeast Asia
Let me end this thread of cases in Asia w/ vaccination rates in Asia by saying the following:

Southeast Asia, esp Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia & Thailand at the BOTTOM for vaccination rates & below world.

Needs to do better ASAP. Also where cases are rising. So?
If Israel, US & UK data come out to show that vaccination = reduction of deaths + hospitalization, then we got a situation where those that vaccinated vs not will have divergent performance economically & socially. Because we need to move to ENDEMIC ASAP. End of 2021 please.
Southeast Asia has a lot of catching up to do & it needs to do it like NOW. You are also seeing more headlines of these economies more urgently acquiring jabs etc. And so it's not all negative. Perhaps the delta variant will change the trajectory of vaccination for the positive.
And to loop this back to the US/geopolitics, if it really wants to influence the region, perhaps helping these economies w/ acquiring jabs is a good start. They are rather desperate to get some, as they should be. We are seeing the beginning of the end or a huge divergence.

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More from @Trinhnomics

20 Jul
Okay, I think there is a silver lining playbook for this delta variant🤗. Been thinking about it for the past two days, especially for Asia.
What do we know? a) Virus mutates & the delta variant is rather infectious but there is something effective at reducing infection & hospitalization - vaccines esp Pfizer & Moderna; b) Asia isn't fully vaccinated & virus is causing countries to use the old playbook - restrictions.
In Asia we got India getting that massive wave that resulted in deaths/hospitalizations/higher poverty & something countries want to avoid through lockdowns - fresh ones are happening in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Australia, Thailand etc. Not good for growth & sustainability.
Read 15 tweets
20 Jul
Good morning - here's what is going on in Asia regarding new Covid infections - charts look messy but key point is that infections are going up on the Delta Variant, even for previously good places like Australia, Vietnam and Singapore.
Added South Korea to the mix (this is net change 1 day) & it's not looking good either: Question is whether Bank of Korea can hike/tighten as it wants to given not the spike of the virus in Korea as well as Asia?
Added India to the mix & you can see that it's high but down from the worst in Q2. This Delta Variant (DV) is wreaking havoc across Asia esp as we are behind in Covid vaccination esp the Pfizer/Moderna one that proven to be more effective.
Read 8 tweets
19 Jul
Good morning Hong Kong!! @Trinhnomics is back! Shop open! Just give me some time to clear some admin! So happy to be back!!! Tons to talk about of course!
Created a Maternity folder & dumped all my emails during my leave there & inbox is cleared already by 230pm (tried to go through them since this morning but so many thousands more & needed a new strategy!!!). Okay, now the fun stuff - economics & markets! FX moves since I left👇🏻
Now that I've put all the emails in one folder to worry about later - let's discuss the two themes dominating markets: Delta Variant & inflation. We focus on the Delta Variant first & why Asian FX for the most part (ex TWD & CNY/CNH) have done poorly vs the USD & why the USD rose
Read 16 tweets
18 Feb
Deaths of Covid-19 by age:

81% of total deaths were of people greater than 65 years of age in 2020.

32% of total deaths by >85 and older.

140 people died from age 0-14 out of 460,234 or 0.03%
41,096 more MEN died of Covid-19 than WOMEN 👈🏻
Other than hospitals/healthcare settings, nursing homes were the #2 place of deaths or 21% of total Covid-19 deaths.
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
May I add electric cars? If u want to live without fossil fuels, it'll be almost impossible. Speaking of oil, watch this documentary by the BBC called Planet Oil & how it has taken over everything. Don't delude urself to think u are green & not black.…
Must watch it to understand the world we live in, if u're not already aware of the role of oil & its derivative in your life. Once u do, u'll find the hypocrisy of vegan shoes etc.

Everything u touch has fossil fuels, including electricity to charge ur phone to read this tweet.
People think oil = the energy that powers your car & therefore if you buy an electric car, say a Tesla, your green cred is up.

But that is delusional thinking. That electric car requires oil to even be manufactured & very energy intensive. And its source of power is fossil fuel.
Read 7 tweets
11 Feb
After that deflated CPI in China, US Jan headline & core inflation decelerated (lower than expectations & MoM lower than before). US 10yr moved lower to 1.12% but the debate on inflation continues: w/ weak demand but supply shocks, will we get stagflation?

Plus, there's fiscal!
Let's look at how the vaccination efforts are going globally:

The US is doing much better with 67.2% of supply used up & that 14 doses per person (I know many people that have gotten the shots). UK is great.

In EM, Chile is standing out. In the EU, Spain not badly either.
The experience of the US shows that after a slow start, there is a steep learning curve & the process gets faster (assuming you have the vaccines to deploy) and hence the distribution of existing supply has shot up in the US sharply. Don't assume linear progress for distribution.
Read 4 tweets

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