As I noted the other day: Regardless of WHY the GOP machine has suddenly decided to do a full 180, it's almost certainly too little too late (though it's still a hell of a lot better than not doing it at all, I suppose). Today is July 21st. 1/
Let's assume that it takes a week of this sudden, coordinated effort by the GOP to spur their base into action, and a significant portion gets their first shot next week. Let's call it around July 28th.

That's 3-4 more weeks for Shot #2, or 8/18 or 8/25. 2/
I understand it takes up to 2 more weeks for the vaxx to take full effect. That's 9/01 or 9/08.

I mean yes, absolutely, EVERYONE who can should get vaccinated IMMEDIATELY, but we're talking up to 7 weeks from today. God only knows how bad it'll be by then.
How much can cases/deaths ramp up in 7 weeks?

We hit 50K today. Here's what it looked like last fall, from October 12th (51K 7-day avg.) through November 23rd (177K 7-day avg.)

I'm not saying it'll be nearly that bad, given that half the country is fully vaxxed now, but still. Image

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More from @charles_gaba

23 Jul
Yeah, I’m posting this while waiting for my own COVID test. I’ve been fully vaxxed for a couple months, wear a mask indoors anytime I’m in public etc. but have been feeling crappy the past few days including shortness of breath and general lethargy, so…
One thing which would help is if you didn’t have to fill out the same half-dozen forms EVERY TIME you get tested (this is the 3rd time I’ve done so at the same location each time…the prior cases were required for minor medical procedures).
If it’s positive that means I get to include myself on tomorrow’s “new cases” spreadsheet and scatter plot graph. Great.
Read 7 tweets
22 Jul
I'm seeing a lot of people calling for those who choose not to #GetVaxxed to have higher insurance premiums.

I understand your frustration, but this is explicitly prohibited by the #ACA.

In fact, "community rating" is one of the most popular provisions of the #ACA. 1/
Under the #ACA, health insurance premiums *for the same policy* can only vary based on 3 things:
1. Where you live (rating areas, usually composed of several counties within a state)
2. How old you are (but limited to a 3:1 range)
3. Whether you smoke (up to a 50% surcharge).
Smoking is the ONLY medical/behavorial factor which is insurers can charge more for (and that 50% surcharge doesn't get to take advantage of the financial subsidies either).

Now, perhaps refusing to #GetVaxxed *should* be added as well, but that's a slippery slope scenario. 3/
Read 5 tweets
22 Jul
📣 NEW: The Outliers: 179 counties which don't quite fit the narrative:
acasignups.net/21/07/22/outli…
Recently I looked at 77 counties where <40% of the population was vaccinated & Trump received <40% of the vote...and 4 where >60% were vaxxed & Trump received >60%.

I found a disturbing pattern in the low-vaxx/low-Trump counties.

Today I've updated this, but expanded the range.
Instead of using <40% & >60%, I changed it to <45% & >55% for both vaxx levels & Trump support.

Findings:
--16 million unvaccinated 12yo+ in the Blue Lo-Vax counties
--500K unvaccinated 12yo+ in the Red Hi-Vax counties
--41M unvaccinated 12yo+ in the Red Lo-Vax counties
Read 7 tweets
21 Jul
📣 UPDATE: With interest in this having gone viral recently (pun intended), I've decided to post the county-level vaccination graph on a weekly basis.

I've also added a key for the bubbles (population size), and have added county labels for more outliers:
acasignups.net/21/07/21/weekl…
ALSO: It turns out those 3 Massachusetts counties (Dukes, Nantucket & Barnstable) aren't done causing headaches after all--there's no way Nantucket can be at 95% vaxxed since *some* young children live there, so until I confirm otherwise I'm assuming that's 95% of 12+ only.
If Nantucket's 95% is 12+ only, that means their total population rate is only around 87%. It also means Dukes & Barnstable are more like 67% & 69% respectively. Today's graph has been updated to reflect this.

Oh yeah: R^2 now stands at 0.4357.
Read 5 tweets
20 Jul
They’re both noteworthy accomplishments but I think the rest of us are a little busy battling a global pandemic, dangerous antivaxxers and Nazi coup attempts.
As many have pointed out, they’re not even that significant in terms of technical accomplishment—we were able to land on the moon over 50 years ago using far less advanced technology, while neither of these even made it beyond suborbital. 1/
The ONLY thing which made either flight truly noteworthy is that fact that they were done by private companies, not the government. That has major implications for the future of space flight and exploration, of course, but it’s not necessarily something to celebrate.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
⚠️ Arkansas has taken the new COVID case lead over Missouri. Here's their county-level vaccination rate (left) vs. new case rates (right):
⚠️ Missouri is still on fire, however. County-level vaxx rate on the left, new case rate on the right:
⚠️ Florida has switched to only releasing county-level data once per week, so these are already out of date, but the Sunshine state has leapt into 3rd place nationally.
Read 6 tweets

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