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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
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26 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The Pentagon's big plan after they got thrashed in a wargame because they were too reliant on weakly protected digital technology is to rely even more heavily on weakly protected digital technology. defenseone.com/policy/2021/07…
It's almost like the military's top brass have absolutely no idea what they're doing or something!
"We lost the wargame because China hacked our systems and made it impossible for us to use our complicated technology. To address this, we will invent a new and even more complicated technology, to coordinate an even more impossibly complex battle plan."
What could possibly go wrong with a military where literally no unit has any understanding of how to operate without 82 other units doing everything in precisely the right way all the time with zero computer glitches!

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More from @lymanstoneky

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Before COVID, nobody laughed at the CDC saying stuff like “the age of infectious disease is over.” The CDC was rapidly expanding its focus on non-communicable diseases and we all got to live this easy happy life where we never had to worry about it.
This period of frivolous decadence, vanity, and callous disregard for human life is over. The truth is that since the 1980s, we have seen a very large increase in novel infectious diseases arising, and the number of potential threats is rising fast too.
We are probably re-entering a period where infectious disease is gonna be a more frequent issue. If it’s not SARS or MERS or COVID or Ebola or AIDS it’ll be something else: resistant tuberculosis, for example.
Read 17 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Okay, more on this.

China's 2020 Census showed 253 million kids ages 0-14.

Prior official data showed 239 million births 2006-2020.

Interpolating survey-reported ASFRs onto best-guess populations yields just 185 million births in that period.
So who do we trust?

Is the Census correct that there were 253 million kids ages 0-14, and so prior birth estimates were too low by *14 million*?
That could be true. But walking that birth estimate back onto the childbearing population produces pretty high ASFR estimates.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
we just gonna act like the green line doesn't exist?
yes, the green line is lower than the red line.

but it's nowhere near zero. we have a fifth of families where parents believe that learning IMPROVED during the pandemic.

that seems important!
figuring out what happened there would be nice.
Read 5 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
the correct way to order medals is to multiply the (Number of Competitors in Event) / (Number of Competitors In Event From Country X) by 3 for a gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze, and use that as "medal points."
Because countries have different numbers of competitors qualifying for each event and because events themselves have different numbers of qualifying participants the actual extent of competition in events varies. Golds are not in fact equally impressive in all events.
An argument could be made against penalizing a country for having more entrants since they still had to qualify, however participating in the Olympics is not *purely* on merit.
Read 4 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
Sports are corrupt. I don't mean corrupting, I mean sporting institutions at almost all levels are corrupt. High school sports are corrupt in their recruiting of kids; you don't get shady recruitment for math class.
College sports are corrupt: witness the admission buying scandal, or else look at the non-criminal ways wealthy kids get into prestigious schools as "athletes."
Professional sports are corrupt: hello taxpayer financed stadium deals!
Read 15 tweets
Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 Profile picture
28 Jul
The reason you should be skeptical of these studies is it’s not like men have more hours of the day, and comparing coupled men and women and coupled parents we know that men have virtually sleep+leisure time… so there’s gotta be work not classified as such.
The exact issue varies. Sometimes what’s happening is men’s contribution to yard work is not counted as house work. Sometimes commuting isn’t counted. Sometimes there are no demographic controls so it’s just prevalence of single parents driving the result.
But the reality is that in apples to apples comparisons men and women have extremely small differences in their “total work commitments.” And the higher prevalence of single moms than single dads is not ONLY about deadbeat dads, but also…
Read 6 tweets

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