Thread by @jburnmurdoch

Correcting an important misconception (this is my chart, but misleading commentary):
•There were thousands more cases among young men than women after ⚽️ matches, showing impact of Euros on transmission
•But not due to attending matches. It was indoor gatherings to watch games

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1419780285827215371

Of course, that still means the transmission bump was driven by the football, but match attendance is only a small part of the cause. The bulk is mixing in pubs, bars, homes etc, plus some from crowded transport to and from those indoor gatherings (and matches).

Thoughts on implications:
• I would guess these watch parties happen at a much larger scale for England games at major tournaments than they do for typical club games, but we've not had pubs fully open during the season yet so that will be worth monitoring.

• What this data also shows is that behaviour (more indoor mixing) really matters. Good news is we now have millions more fully vaxxed in the UK than during Euros, but as reopening + worsening weather send more people indoors, don't be surprised to see an impact on the numbers.

Here's our full story with @clivecookson on how to make sense of the falling case numbers in England, what they might mean for hospital admissions this week, and how we might expect the reopening to show up in case data on.ft.com/2UIKMWM