I do think, as long as we have notable excess mortality and rising cases, vaccinated people should mask in indoors settings since you can still contract/spread it. I also think people with the flulike symptoms or just a cough should mask. And you should wipe when you poop.
Please commit to minimum standards of decency like wearing pants when out of the house and masking when there’s a plausible chance you have a contagious illness, or when there is a very unusual large spike in a contagious illness in your community.
If you’re on team don’t-wash-after-wiping, I mean I guess you do you, but that’s gross and don’t expect the rest of society to act like you’re not gross. Likewise, please wear a mask when you are probably contagious or lots of other people are.
Maybe you just have a cold and the worst that’s gonna happen is I will get a sniffle and my kid will get sick and miss a day of school and I will miss a day of work but actually that’s a ton more inconvenient than you just putting a piece of hygienic non woven fabric n your face.
Your kid is uncomfortable in a mask? Okay. I won’t bully your kid into wearing a mask because your kid is not a mature adult. You are. Act like it. If you’re coughing after the allergy meds should have kicked in, it’s probably not allergies.
And probably part of being a good parent is gradually helping your child learn to do things like wash their hands, cover their mouth when they sneeze, not talk with their mouth full, and wear a mask when sick and in enclosed spaces.
Your 5 year old can’t do all this stuff well. Your 9 year old is learning. Your 12 year old really ought to have it figured out. Your 16 year old should have it down pat. It’s like potty training for your face.
This is probably false. Most states in the US have unusually high death rates right now. People just don’t know this. So many teams people tel me “COVID wasn’t so bad here” then I look up the data and deaths are 20% over normal. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️
“But COVID will be here forever.”

Yes, forever, if a person or a household member has flulike symptoms, or if a state is experiencing excess mortality from infectious disease, people should wear masks. Those two events are not extremely common.
Even if COVID is with us forever, excess mortality from COVID will eventually dissipate, one way or another. So the current state of frequent masking will fade.

But in the future yes if a school has more than 5 or 6 flu cases, every kid should mask!
This is normal in many countries! It saves lives! It’s not terribly inconvenient!
So the argument isn’t “masks forever and always til we die” it’s “surely we have now learned that with a little effort we can dramatically reduce flu deaths and save a ton of lives of kids and elders”
If we would cancel school for flu cases a little more often and have kids mask up when classmates are out sick, we could dramatically reduce childhood influenza, which has large negative costs on kids. That would be a huge win!
And if in the process kids spend less time in soul-destroying Learning Warehouses, thumbs up to that too!

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More from @lymanstoneky

28 Jul
Before COVID, nobody laughed at the CDC saying stuff like “the age of infectious disease is over.” The CDC was rapidly expanding its focus on non-communicable diseases and we all got to live this easy happy life where we never had to worry about it.
This period of frivolous decadence, vanity, and callous disregard for human life is over. The truth is that since the 1980s, we have seen a very large increase in novel infectious diseases arising, and the number of potential threats is rising fast too.
We are probably re-entering a period where infectious disease is gonna be a more frequent issue. If it’s not SARS or MERS or COVID or Ebola or AIDS it’ll be something else: resistant tuberculosis, for example.
Read 17 tweets
28 Jul
Okay, more on this.

China's 2020 Census showed 253 million kids ages 0-14.

Prior official data showed 239 million births 2006-2020.

Interpolating survey-reported ASFRs onto best-guess populations yields just 185 million births in that period.
So who do we trust?

Is the Census correct that there were 253 million kids ages 0-14, and so prior birth estimates were too low by *14 million*?
That could be true. But walking that birth estimate back onto the childbearing population produces pretty high ASFR estimates.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
we just gonna act like the green line doesn't exist?
yes, the green line is lower than the red line.

but it's nowhere near zero. we have a fifth of families where parents believe that learning IMPROVED during the pandemic.

that seems important!
figuring out what happened there would be nice.
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
the correct way to order medals is to multiply the (Number of Competitors in Event) / (Number of Competitors In Event From Country X) by 3 for a gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze, and use that as "medal points."
Because countries have different numbers of competitors qualifying for each event and because events themselves have different numbers of qualifying participants the actual extent of competition in events varies. Golds are not in fact equally impressive in all events.
An argument could be made against penalizing a country for having more entrants since they still had to qualify, however participating in the Olympics is not *purely* on merit.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
Sports are corrupt. I don't mean corrupting, I mean sporting institutions at almost all levels are corrupt. High school sports are corrupt in their recruiting of kids; you don't get shady recruitment for math class.
College sports are corrupt: witness the admission buying scandal, or else look at the non-criminal ways wealthy kids get into prestigious schools as "athletes."
Professional sports are corrupt: hello taxpayer financed stadium deals!
Read 15 tweets
28 Jul
The reason you should be skeptical of these studies is it’s not like men have more hours of the day, and comparing coupled men and women and coupled parents we know that men have virtually sleep+leisure time… so there’s gotta be work not classified as such.
The exact issue varies. Sometimes what’s happening is men’s contribution to yard work is not counted as house work. Sometimes commuting isn’t counted. Sometimes there are no demographic controls so it’s just prevalence of single parents driving the result.
But the reality is that in apples to apples comparisons men and women have extremely small differences in their “total work commitments.” And the higher prevalence of single moms than single dads is not ONLY about deadbeat dads, but also…
Read 6 tweets

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