Thread by @rhizomyx

What happened in Tunisia is a coup insofar as it's an evidently unconstitutional - allegedly temporary but don't be naive - power grab. Unconstitutional primarily because Saied used Article 80 to suspended parliamentary activity for 30 days, while this article states that

parliament must be in permanent session. I cannot find any plausible interpretation that would validate the idea that parliament can be suspended and at the same time in permanent session. Saied is known for very loosely interpreting the law and the Constitution.

He can come up with compelling explanations that would persuade most laypeople but wouldn't fool any serious jurist.

But this isn't your grandpa's kind of coups. Didn't close the borders, didn't arrest political opponents who represent a threat to his scheme, and national

media are still freely giving a platform to opponents to voice their criticism of Saied's decisions. Policemen stormed Al Jazeera's office and interrogated journalists. But it's unclear who ordered that and why. That's a red flag anyway but it should be noted that AJ is still

operating and covering events and no journalists have been arrested or expelled.

Civil society, including large and influential organisations, is pressuring Saied to respect human rights and democratic principles. Huge pushback for example against his decision to grab

prosecutorial powers, and strong warnings against hindering press freedom. Many are rightly concerned that Saied may permanently end Tunisia's democratic experiment. But many also hope that he will use his newly acquired powers to uncover evidence of

large-scale corruption, ties between political leaders and terrorist organisations. If he uses that evidence to prosecute and jail his opponents in Moscow-style trials, you can forget about democracy or stability in this country. He could, in theory, hand the evidence to the

judicial before restoring constitutional order and allow fair trials to happen. That sounds highly unlikely, but some hope for that.

Anyway, he is expected to do something to effectively address the grievances of the majority of Tunisians who are disgruntled with this regime

which has been abusive to its citizens (no justice, unchecked police brutality, corruption, plunder, marginalisation) and with the impunity of a largely self-serving political class which wouldn't care a bit about democracy if they couldn't leveraged it to raise funds from

gullible Western donors. If he doesn't address this fairly quickly, he will lose popular support. So there is tremendous pressure on him. Pressure which could lead him to the path of least resistance: Moscow trials, possibly the dissolution of certain parties, confiscation of

the assets of politicians and the businesspeople who back them... Although this would satisfy many citizens, it would not look good externally. Is he willing to lose the West's support and get into bed with Egypt, Russia, China, the UAE, KSA? Not sure about that.

Tunisia is very dependent upon the EU, our main partner, and to a different extent the US. Losing them is not an easy choice for Saied.

This means that he has a strong incentive to play nice and avoid abusing his powers. Again, not sure that he cares but his recent outreach to

foreign countries, including the EU and the US to raise resources to fight COVID-19 indicates that he does care about Western ties.

If these Western states do what some pundits and US congresspeople recommend, i.e. determine that Saied made a coup and interfere by withdrawing

aid or other forms of blackmail/intimidation, they actually lose their leverage over him and push him into the hands of other powers (Egy, RU, UAE), which will surely and permanently end Tunisia's democratic transition.

The only wise course of action is letting Saied know that

he is not fooling anybody, warning him against abusing his powers, undermining human rights, while engaging in genuine dialogue with him. This is what some very influential Tunisian civil society organisations have been doing and it seems to have pushed him to be more transparent

and cautious. They are trying to compel him to give guarantees and reverse course on certain of his most questionable decisions. I think these organisations have a best shot at taming Saied. For sure, he won't listen to political parties; he despises them and rightly so.

The guy is incredibly stubborn and I'm not randomly using the verb "tame" here. Accusations, intimidation, and hysteria won't work on him - this will probably harden his position. He needs to be listen to by organisations which have some national legitimacy

like UGTT, local human rights organisations, the Bar Association, who can also speak up to him and issue warnings.

I wrote he must be listened to because nobody seems to understand his end game. We need him to open up about his intentions and adjust course based on that.

He wants regime change, but in which direction? Does he want a permanent dictatorship? Does he want a presidential system under a new electoral law and new elections? Or is he sticking to his campaign promise to establish a highly decentralised regime?

Does he intend to be the solo writer of a new constitution? Is he willing to submit it to a referendum? Is he open to creating an elected, representative body to draft a new constitution? What if the output doesn't match his vision?

Does he want to ban all political parties or does he just want to create safeguards against partisan corruption?

Nobody can answer these questions today. And it's urgent for us to better understand what he wants, either to strongly resist his plans or to help him

negotiate a way out of this authoritarian episode.

But to be clear, neither Saied's path nor a return to the previous state of affairs is sustainable if the deeper grievances of the population are not addressed.

The number one priority, insofar as there haven't been any human rights violations, is to understand Saied's intentions. People who pretend to know - whether they're for Saied or against him - do not know anything with certainty.

This guy remains an enigma.

I cannot possibly envision a course of action that would lead us out of this situation if we do not understand this man's intentions and state of mind. And no, I'm not whitewashing the coup or justifying it. I'm just a concerned citizen who

is upset about the current situation and wants to avoid the worst case scenario.

The day Saied sheds blood, takes extra-judicial measures, censors national media, unduly confiscates property, we won't need any further information to understand where he's going.

In sum, this is as delicate as a hostage situation. Can end well through negotiation, but brute force on either side is likely to lead to mutual failure.