As investors kept searching for the next “Google”, it turns out you could have done pretty well betting on the real Google with YTD of ~60% or ~30% CAGR in the last 3 and 5 years.
Here are my highlights from the earnings call and quarter.
2/ Every quarter, big tech continues to bend our minds with their numbers.
Regression to the mean? Pfft.
3/ YouTube is growing at 40% and YouTube ads revenue itself was 95% of $NFLX revenue last quarter.
In 1Q’19, YouTube ads was ~67% of NFLX revenue.
YouTube is a beast, and perhaps NFLX isn’t really “big tech”!
4/ Incremental operating margin is so high that Google really needs to hide it fast!
Even American capitalism may not tolerate such a wonderful business at such a scale.
5/ “if you look at Search on a 2-year stack, the growth is the highest it has been years”
“MUM is a big advancement in Search, a thousand times more powerful than our current systems.”
Good luck competing on search!
6/ Retail was the largest contributor on ads, followed by travel, financial services, and media and entertainment.
“Searches for support local business are up like 20x last year in the U.S. alone.”
7/ “from Q4 '18 to Q4 '20, on average, 70% of YouTube's reach was delivered to an audience not reached by the advertisers TV media.”
8/ “U.S. advertisers who shifted just 20% of spend from TV to YouTube generated a 25% increase to the total campaign reach within their target audience, while lowering their cost per reach point by almost 20%.”
9/ “YouTube is uniquely positioned to drive both massive reach and action.”
“we're working really hard to make YouTube not only more actionable, but also more shoppable.”
10/ “2020 was about removing financial barriers. We made listings free of commission fees.”
“2021, as I said, has been about removing integration barriers. We have the partnerships with Shopify, Square, BigCommerce, GoDaddy, Woocommerce and so on.”
11/ “…in the U.S., we have over 120 million people watch YouTube on TVs every month, and that's up from like 100 million last year. We're #1 in reach and watch time among ad-supported streaming services.”
12/ As I hinted earlier, Google will try its best to hide the profitability.
13/ With ~$200 Bn annualized ad revenue, is Google going to focus on diversifying its revenue mix?
“We start from first principles to its focusing on both investing in deep technology and solving user problems.”
End/ I will cover $FB and $AMZN earnings this week.
We have all been whispering about tough comps for Covid beneficiary companies, and the comps were indeed quite tough.
Let’s look at segment by segment and some highlights from the call.
2/ First, here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
3/ Given 2Q’20 was the beginning of the massive pandemic tailwind, it is more instructive to see 2-yr and 3-yr CAGR to see the underlying strength of the business.
Because of the price point ($10/month or $100/year), I think the prevalent assumption for MBI Deep Dives (also applies to some other newsletters) is that it’s mainly targeted towards retail investors.
2/9 I don’t quite target anyone. I just do what I do and hope that there are people out there who will find my work useful enough to subscribe.
3/9 Here is a snapshot of 20 funds/firms from which I have at least one subscriber.
I just wrote down the names from memory and then sorted it alphabetically. There are, of course, many other funds subscribing to MBI Deep Dives.
1/7 Since I publicly pitched this last year, I would like to disclose that I just sold $ISRG. From ~$550 to ~$950, it was a decent ride, but mostly luck tbh.
2/7 ISRG remains an excellent biz, but I think market is still underestimating the potential impact of delta on recovery path for a company like ISRG.
3/7 I admit I am a little concerned about delta variant. However, it’s always hard to not only predict how the fundamentals will be affected but also how the market will react even if fundamentals are indeed impacted.
In 1986, Richard Hamming, a famous mathematician, gave a speech titled “You and Your Research”.
@RishiGosalia insisted I read the speech, so I did. It is one of the few things I would like to re-read many times in future.
Leaving some notes.
2/ “shouldn't you say to yourself,, “Yes, I would like to do something significant”
Success is not a mere byproduct of luck although it does play a role. Many successful scientists had many great work, not just one-off work. Think Einstein, Shannon etc.
3/ Newton said, ``If others would think as hard as I did, then they would get similar results.''
“Once you get your courage up and believe that you can do important problems, then you can. If you think you can't, almost surely you are not going to.”
For a long time, I thought the value proposition of a newsletter is great. Only recently I have understood my framework for assigning value to a newsletter was perhaps flawed.
2/ My initial framework was based on my own opportunity cost. I thought since the opportunity cost is $200-300k but I am willing to sell my intellectual capital for $100/year, that must be a great deal for subscribers.
3/ That thesis isn’t entirely wrong at first glance since I did end up getting 1k subscribers in less than a year. But this thesis is very much “author-centric” view.
A more “subscriber-centric” view is likely to reveal the value proposition (or lack thereof) better.