1/ $AMZN 2Q’21 Update

We have all been whispering about tough comps for Covid beneficiary companies, and the comps were indeed quite tough.

Let’s look at segment by segment and some highlights from the call.
2/ First, here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
3/ Given 2Q’20 was the beginning of the massive pandemic tailwind, it is more instructive to see 2-yr and 3-yr CAGR to see the underlying strength of the business.
4/ Although 1P may seem to have slowed down, that doesn’t seem to be the case when you look at 2-yr CAGR.

In any case, the money-making segments (3P, Prime, Ad, AWS) don’t seem to care about any headwind and their faster growth trajectory are helping expand operating margins.
5/ Is AMZN purposefully focusing more on higher margin segment?

“…I’d like to say it is”

I wonder whether CEO Jassy has more affinity to margins than Bezos did. I wish he were at least on the first call as CEO.
6/ Prime is now available in 22 countries (was 17 in 2018).

Business Prime now has 1 mn customers since launching in 2017.
7/ “Amazon advertising is innovating at a fast clip, launching over 40 new features and self-service capabilities in the quarter”

“Amazon Advertising announced that Amazon Streaming TV ads and Twitch now jointly reach an audience of 120 million monthly viewers across the U.S.”
8/ While we intuitively think about Amazon ads on its e-commerce website, its streaming TV ads and Twitch may eventually become more dominant force in the ad segment in the long-term, especially if ads end up deteriorating consumer experience on the website as some often claim.
9/ Why is AWS margin down ~280 bps YoY?

150 bps FX headwind.

Some pricing pressure, but also sales force expansion as well as addition of new regions which can make margins slightly choppy.
10/ Outlook appears to be a bit soft with guidance being 10-16% YoY growth (remember no Prime day in Q3 this year). On 2-yr stack, it’s still 25-30% CAGR range vs ~21% pre-pandemic.
End/ I will cover $ETSY next week.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

29 Jul
1/ Thread: $FB 2Q’21 Update

Everyone sort of expected Facebook to post a big quarter. It was big indeed, but wasn’t quite jaw dropping big!

I found interesting details about ad inventory (there was a great answer from Sheryl), metaverse etc. from this call. Let’s unpack.
2/ FB’s incremental margins are just as juicy as GOOG’s.

What a wonderfully long, scalable, and profitable secular theme it has been for the last decade!
3/ DAU 1.91 Bn +7% YoY; MAU 2.9 Bn +7%; Family DAP 2.76 Bn +12%

In 2Q’21, # of impressions +6%, avg price/ad +47%
In 1Q’21, # of impressions +12%, avg price/ad +30%
Read 22 tweets
28 Jul
1/ Thread: $GOOG 2Q’21 Update

As investors kept searching for the next “Google”, it turns out you could have done pretty well betting on the real Google with YTD of ~60% or ~30% CAGR in the last 3 and 5 years.

Here are my highlights from the earnings call and quarter.
2/ Every quarter, big tech continues to bend our minds with their numbers.

Regression to the mean? Pfft.
3/ YouTube is growing at 40% and YouTube ads revenue itself was 95% of $NFLX revenue last quarter.

In 1Q’19, YouTube ads was ~67% of NFLX revenue.

YouTube is a beast, and perhaps NFLX isn’t really “big tech”!
Read 14 tweets
22 Jul
1/9 Thread: Who subscribes to MBI Deep Dives?

Because of the price point ($10/month or $100/year), I think the prevalent assumption for MBI Deep Dives (also applies to some other newsletters) is that it’s mainly targeted towards retail investors.
2/9 I don’t quite target anyone. I just do what I do and hope that there are people out there who will find my work useful enough to subscribe.
3/9 Here is a snapshot of 20 funds/firms from which I have at least one subscriber.

I just wrote down the names from memory and then sorted it alphabetically. There are, of course, many other funds subscribing to MBI Deep Dives. Image
Read 9 tweets
19 Jul
1/7 Since I publicly pitched this last year, I would like to disclose that I just sold $ISRG. From ~$550 to ~$950, it was a decent ride, but mostly luck tbh.

2/7 ISRG remains an excellent biz, but I think market is still underestimating the potential impact of delta on recovery path for a company like ISRG.
3/7 I admit I am a little concerned about delta variant. However, it’s always hard to not only predict how the fundamentals will be affected but also how the market will react even if fundamentals are indeed impacted.
Read 7 tweets
15 Jul
1/ Thread: You and Your Research

In 1986, Richard Hamming, a famous mathematician, gave a speech titled “You and Your Research”.

@RishiGosalia insisted I read the speech, so I did. It is one of the few things I would like to re-read many times in future.

Leaving some notes.
2/ “shouldn't you say to yourself,, “Yes, I would like to do something significant”

Success is not a mere byproduct of luck although it does play a role. Many successful scientists had many great work, not just one-off work. Think Einstein, Shannon etc.
3/ Newton said, ``If others would think as hard as I did, then they would get similar results.''

“Once you get your courage up and believe that you can do important problems, then you can. If you think you can't, almost surely you are not going to.”
Read 19 tweets
11 Jul
1/ Thread: The value of a newsletter

For a long time, I thought the value proposition of a newsletter is great. Only recently I have understood my framework for assigning value to a newsletter was perhaps flawed.
2/ My initial framework was based on my own opportunity cost. I thought since the opportunity cost is $200-300k but I am willing to sell my intellectual capital for $100/year, that must be a great deal for subscribers.
3/ That thesis isn’t entirely wrong at first glance since I did end up getting 1k subscribers in less than a year. But this thesis is very much “author-centric” view.

A more “subscriber-centric” view is likely to reveal the value proposition (or lack thereof) better.
Read 12 tweets

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