Thread by @JakeSherman

In @PunchbowlNews this AM: “They did it. How, and what's next.”

Give them credit. The G10 -- the bipartisan infrastructure group of 10 senators -- and the White House got an infrastructure proposal locked down on Wednesday.

@PunchbowlNews And then they got a large majority to vote to advance it on the Senate floor. Final passage could come at some point next week, a potentially huge breakthrough after weeks of intense negotiations that almost fell apart several times.

@PunchbowlNews How did this happen?

→ @JoeBiden wanted it. Biden and @SenCapito weren’t able to get there, but when a president leans in and empowers competent and focused staff, things happen.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito → @senrobportman -- a lame duck -- wanted it too. Being a lame duck, Portman had a little more freedom to operate than other Rs. Portman met on Tuesday night for more than six hours with Steve Ricchetti, a top Biden White House aide, to hammer out some details of the agreement.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman → Sinemanchin — @SenatorSinema and @Sen_JoeManchin -- demanded it, and without them, there was no path forward for any part of Biden’s agenda.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin → We all scoffed at -- or doubted, at least -- the “dual-track strategy” (bipartisan infrastructure and partisan reconciliation) devised by @SenSchumer and the White House. It still may not work, but it’s the only possible solution. It’s on track at the moment.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer → The G10 made it work: Not to be cheesy, but there’s something about this group that makes them more effective than other legislative clans.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer We talked about Sinema, Manchin and Portman already. The other four Republican senators -- Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney and Bill Cassidy --- all voted to impeach former President Donald Trump, which shows they’re ready to buck their party if needed.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer Collins and Murkowksi also have voted for several of Biden’s nominees. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) will do his own thing, and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) has been yearning to be a bipartisan dealmaker for his entire tenure in the Senate.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) may have as much political need for this deal as anyone in the Senate. In the end, the unique dynamics of the group, both personally and politically, helped make it happen.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer What caught our eye on the vote last night:

→ @SenJohnThune and @SenJohnBarrasso, @LeaderMcConnell No. 2 and No. 3, both voted no. They both have an eye on being a future leader. @JohnCornyn, another potential GOP leader down the road, was also a no.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer @SenJohnThune @SenJohnBarrasso @LeaderMcConnell @JohnCornyn → Of the 17 GOP yes votes, 3 (Blunt, Burr and Portman) aren’t running for re-election; seven (Risch, Tillis, Graham, McConnell, Capito, Collins and Cassidy) just won re-election in 2020; and five (Crapo, Grassley, Hoeven, Young and Murkowski) are up for re-election in 2022.

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer @SenJohnThune @SenJohnBarrasso @LeaderMcConnell @JohnCornyn What’s next?

Here’s a portion of what we sent to Premium subscribers last night. We projected out the process farther than this, and you should subscribe to Premium if you want additional deep reporting on the legislative process.

bit.ly/3zKDtfP

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer @SenJohnThune @SenJohnBarrasso @LeaderMcConnell @JohnCornyn Where are the tripwires?

→ Amendments: Portman said the bipartisan group was “very open to amendments. We want this to be a fair process so that Republicans and Democrats alike can have an opportunity to try to amend the legislation. We’re both committed to that.”

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer @SenJohnThune @SenJohnBarrasso @LeaderMcConnell @JohnCornyn → Pay fors: This is clearly a concern for G10. There’s skepticism in both parties whether the proposed pay fors -- which we broke for Premium subscribers in yesterday’s Midday edition -- can withstand rigorous scrutiny, as well as what it would mean for the package if they don’t

@PunchbowlNews @JoeBiden @SenCapito @senrobportman @SenatorSinema @Sen_JoeManchin @SenSchumer @SenJohnThune @SenJohnBarrasso @LeaderMcConnell @JohnCornyn → House: Progressives are going to be a big challenge if and when this legislation gets to the House. And they’re already warning that they won’t vote for any bipartisan infrastructure bill unless it’s accompanied by a multi-trillion dollar Senate approved reconciliation bill.