Share this page!

David Henig Profile picture
Twitter logo
29 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Picking fights with the EU as a member state is one of the few things they have in common. Doing so as a third country is a completely different proposition, not nearly as painless, and the UK government hasn't learnt the difference. politico.eu/article/boris-…
So much of what I and fellow trade wonks write that the simplists profess as anti-EU is actually pointing out the difference between being a Member State and a third country. We used to blame the EU then get our way. That hasn't happened since 2016, and won't very often.
Still suspect that Ministers are surprised that they no longer attend Brussels summits in which the UK largely achieve our aims. Wasn't a great preparation for the largely horrid experience of being a third country where even the US doesn't get that.
"Oh then aren't we glad we're out of such a horrible organisation" say the simplists oblivious to this mostly being a matter of size. The US isn't a lot of laughs either, or the UK to smaller, poorer, less white countries. As ever, time we wised up.
This is of course true, so how can we get it to Brussels?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig

David Henig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
30 Jul
What is the reason for the optimism bias that meant the UK government thought they'd know how to beat the EU in negotiations, Ireland wasn't going to be important? And after 5 years of failure, why haven't we still understood?
Yes I had the advantage of 3 years of phone calls from the US about how horrible it was negotiating with the EU, but this really shouldn't have been a difficult message to understand. Few third countries have got the better of the EU in negotiations.
I suppose it gets to the heart of the Brexit view of the EU as both an evil empire bent on domination and an organisation permanently on the verge of collapse with just one push. I'd just hoped we could leave the nonsense behind at some point, but it seems too ingrained.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Jul
One final pre-summer column for @BorderlexEditor ahead of an August break, and this week I look at UK government consultation on trade policy - plenty of structures, but seemingly no great desire to use them to genuinely engage. To increasing annoyance. borderlex.net/2021/07/28/per…
So why is the UK government not genuinely engaging with stakeholders on trade policy? In rough order, lack of trust, erroneous belief negotiations have to be entirely secret, and no wish to listen to dissenting voices. We see clear evidence of each of these. As do business. Image
Does it actually matter if the UK government isn't particularly concerned about listening to stakeholders? Yes, if it means you miss detail in a final agreement (many in TCA), or risk rejection of your approach (Australia FTA). borderlex.net/2021/07/28/per…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Jul
Just engaging with a few Brexit ultras. It appears that they have still learned nothing of trade, Ireland, international relations, even the size of the UK compared to the EU. The government talks that talk, but to walk it would mean economic isolation, which they can't do.
Though not a phrase used often, to be fair to Boris Johnson he managed to betray Brexit ultras and the DUP over Northern Ireland and a trade deal while making them think he was their hero, and keeps doing so. Any other Conservative leader would be in big trouble over Brexit.
Which again is why we are at a stalemate over Northern Ireland, Frost and Johnson have to do the macho talk to please the ultras, but can't afford to actually start a trade war and lose Nissan and the European supply chains. All pretty unstable though.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Jul
So what's the overall approach to Chinese investment in the UK? Or EU, or US? And to trade ties, are we assuming future de-linkage, or is this simply not possible? What would it mean for global institutions? Big questions, shortage of answers. ft.com/content/c4a3fe…
No, I don't have the magical answer as to future relations between Europe / North America and China either. I'm just concerned that the general strategy seems to be a large shrug and hoping for the best.
Shipping container rates, another complex story about which we know far too little. But at this rate, build shipping containers.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Jul
Spot on. The continued refusal to take Northern Ireland trade issues seriously in government and among cheerleaders has become symbolic of their lack of understanding of the world as it is, as opposed to how they think it should work.
The FT is not mincing words though failing to come to terms with the fact that compromise with a UK government that simply refuses to take trade realities seriously is not possible. ft.com/content/2f3437…
Suspect the EU also realise that time as well as international economic power is on their side over Northern Ireland. The longer the UK government complain about Northern Ireland the more they remind people Brexit is not done. Take action, consequence. Go quiet, unionist anger.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Jul
Have to credit @DavidGauke with almost carrying out an interview here with Dominic Cummings on various aspects of Brexit, trade and the Northern Ireland protocol. And indeed for clear answers.

However from a trade wonk point of view what these reveal is a worrying knowledge gap.
Quickly though on one point, there's no doubt this was right, triggering Article 50 without a plan or leverage was silly. But I don't think would have changed the situation wrt Northern Ireland and Brexit...
Problem is summed up here - Northern Ireland would have been a small part of the negotiation. That wouldn't have been the case because it goes to the heart of two Brexit issues - international relations, and trade. Fundamentally.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK

:(