Thread by @SeanCasten

I'm feeling sad about COVID today for reasons that have partial parallels to the HIV crisis in the 1980s. Thread on public health, intended primarily for the unvaccinated and the Trump-wing of the @GOP. Maybe futile, but hoping some data might save a few lives. Dive in:

1/ I grew up in the NYC suburbs. My first boss from my first high school job was a gay man who died of AIDS. I watched the rise of ActUp! and their political battles with Ed Koch and others to acknowledge the truth of what was happening

2/ What was clear then, and even more in hindsight is that the spread of the disease was made worse by political discomfort talking about risk factors for transmission.

3/ So too with COVID. But where AIDS spread more quickly than it needed to because of the politicization of human sexuality, COVID spread more quickly because of the "tribal epistemology" of our political system.

4/ @drvolts coined that term, and it's worth reading his piece here. The idea is that while truth is universal, our perceptions of truth are increasingly informed by our "tribe". See here: vox.com/policy-and-pol…

5/ The germ theory of disease, the science of epidemiology, the mechanisms of vaccines, the ways to stop the spread of airborne pathogens... these are all proven, knowable truths. "It will magically go away" or "Dems just want to shut down the economy" is TE.

6/ But that TE has infected the Trump wing of the @GOP in two ways. First, and most obviously by making them less likely to wear masks and less likely to get vaccinated. washingtonpost.com/politics/post-…

7/ But second - and maybe more perniciously - because of way that they have assumed the rest of the world shares their moral code. In the words of @fakedansavage, when someone accuses you of something you've never thought of, they are telling you what they are capable of.

8/ Trump was the first President (at least in my lifetime) who not only made no effort to represent those who didn't vote for him, but actually wished them harm. If you are capable of that process, you come to assume your political opponents wish the same of you.

9/ "You're only closing restaurants to slow the economy or to hurt our guy's political fortunes" is the kind of thought you only think if you would do the same in the reverse situation. We don't. But that idea infected a large bloc of a major political party.

10/ Let's be very clear: the COVID-19 virus doesn't care who you voted for. Neither do those who are trying to stop it's spread. Every one of us as a friend, neighbor, loved one, etc. who voted differently than us. We don't want any of them to die.

11/ But if you thought it was OK for Trump to wish suffering on his opponents, you may assume that his opponents wish the same of you. So a politician with a D after their name encouraging you to get vaccinated can't be trusted. It's why we need R leaders to put science first.

12/ Harvard data on vaccination rate by Congressional district. The top rates are all Dems. The bottom are all Rs. People are dying because of the politicization. That is no less tragic because of their voter registration status. geographicinsights.iq.harvard.edu/vaccineuscongr…

13/ @charles_gaba has done more granular data by county that's easier to visualize. And just as heartbreaking.

https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status/1420914732182249478?s=20

14/ So if you are still vaccine hesitant, two things you should know. First, the delta strains is different. There is a natural selection pressure for viruses to become more transmissible and less lethal over time. The delta strain is more transmissible AND more lethal.

15/ In other words, some of what we learned from the early strain no longer precisely applies. washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-br…

16/ Second, while no vaccination gives 100% protection from COVID, you are 8x as likely to get COVID if you're unvaccinated, 25x as likely to go to the hospital and 25x as likely to die.

17/ Note: you should remain vigilant even if you are in areas with high vaccination rates. The outbreak in Barnstable county MA (Cape Cod) suggests that even the high vaccination rates there are not yet at the herd immunity levels we need to go all the way back to normal.

18/ So please, unless you have a medical complication, get vaccinated. It is the only way to save lives, get our economy back to normal and put this pandemic behind us.

19/ Regardless of where you live and who you voted for. But especially if you live in a very Trumpy / low vax rate region. That goes double for social distancing and masking. We are not out of the woods yet, and the current surge is disproportionately hitting red America.

20/ The beauty of our country and our democracy is our diversity of opinion, and freedom to express that opinion (peacefully) in the ballot box and public square. Don't let COVID take that away from us. /fin