Thread by @gelliottmorris

I think bias in US electoral institutions is probably a bigger threat to representative government in American than almost anything else. The growing rural bias of the Senate+EC (graphs via @davidshor) nearly ensures Rs will deny Ds fair majoritarian control for at least a decade

Plus, bc of the current bias in the House & 2022 redistricting harms, Ds r very very likely to lose control of Congress. Extrapolating historical trends, current polling indicates they'll be @ 48% in polls on eday. Polarization gets Ds ~1% back. But they need 51.5-52%. (MOE is 6)

When ppl ask me if we are approaching civil war, I tend to say no — Instead, we are rapidly nearing a time when the majority will need 52-53% to win, & a ruling authoritarian minority will enact policies that harm the other 200m+ citizens w/o meaningful electoral accountability

If Rs continue to find marginal electoral success convincing voters that the culture war matters more than policy outcomes (& they keep the Senate filibuster) this could easily be the status quo for the next two decades. The math for any sufficient reform is nearly impossible.

My opinion is a US version of the UK's Troubles is much likelier than outright war or organized separatism—& that the US gov has too much state power to properly "collapse" in our lifetimes, even when democratic accountability functionally disappears soon

https://twitter.com/HarrisPeskin/status/1421155531662798863?s=20

Anyway I'm sure all my thinking on this will change/be crystallized/etc in the future and I'm open to debate—I'm just putting it here for posterity

Sorry, to clarify why I attached the plot on generic ballot polling here:

The point is that Dems are rapidly running out of time to do anything about this, and their key actors have failed to realize there's no way to avoid the break-the-glass scenario

https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1421158009141710859?s=20