And speaking of the Olympics ... is this as important as the medal count?
2/5
Japan is under a "state of emergency" and as Apple mobility shows, they are severely restricting their movements (the Olympics started July 23).
(Apple aggregates location data services for various areas)
3/5
Google also aggregates movement of their phones and they similarly show Tokyo businesses have essentially closed, mass transit is empty and even walks in the park are down since the opening ceremonies (July 23).
4/5
What did Tokyo get from the Olympics?
* $Billions spent on sports facilities that will rarely get used again
* massive disruption life and business, lost income
* no tourism
* A spike in delta variant cases that will last a while
The blowback will be big and profound.
5/5
Worth noting that former Prime Minister Abe was strutting around like a Peacock in front of the world at the closing ceremonies of the Rio games in 2016 celebrating that the next games would be in Tokyo.
He did not even attend the opening ceremonies last week.
nuff said
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I was on CNBC earlier today talking about plunging bond yields.
1/6
I'm in the camp that says inflation is not transitory. I still believe this is correct.
But, as the bottom panel suggests, this is not what the markets are worried about. Note that yields (orange) and the relative performance of reopening stocks (green) are nearly the same
2/6
So, the market is focused on growth and not inflation. On this front, it is not good. The reopening stocks are having their worst stretch since the Pfizer vaccine announcement last November.
"About a third of workers in the U.S. hold jobs that economists say could be done remotely."
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I agree and understanding the ramifications of this change is going to redefine the economy over the next several years.
The tip of this iceberg is the enormous impact it will have on traffic. no mre rush hour?
Then redefining the meaning of office is next. What is its purpose? Why do we have them?
2/6
The jobs that can be done at home, which again are one-third of the workforce, a nothing but glorified video games. My job is this and most of your jobs are as well.
We sit at computer screens and manipulate things. Essentially we are playing a video game.
3/6
The pandemic has caused spending patterns have changed more than anytime in history.
1/4
So the inflation measures now overweight stuff we don't buy as much, like subway passes, restaurants and business attire, which are falling in price. and underweight things we spend a lot more on, like groceries, bicycles, and used cars, which are rising in price.
2/4
As noted in the FT, Harvard professor Alberto Cavallo took a stab at this and found that US inflation may have been underestimated by 5.5% over the course of 2020.
To repeat, inflation last year was near 7% according to his studies. And it is probably higher this year.
3/4
Bottom line, Tether is never redeemed, so the Trust is more or less irrelevant.
Stablecoins are a trading pairs and transfer tokens in wallets. They are not a money market funds like Tim Massad opined.
And this is what makes stablecoins so powerful, and worrisome to regulators/TradFi. They are backed by the same thing as the $$$, full faith and credit...of the crypto universe!
USDT's problem is its centralized. A decentralized stablecoin (DAI, LUSD) has more potential.
My worst fear, regulators are afraid they will be irrelevant and will set out to destroy innovation and improvement to keep themselves relevant, all while claiming they are "protecting the public."
Remember this is a warning:
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help"
3/3