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G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
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1 Aug, 4 tweets, 1 min read
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I will make a better plot soon, but vax rates in the rural midwest and northeast look to be the highest above trend in all the US. Would be interested in reading about why
My initial hypothesis is that counties with a high concentration of whites but fewer white evangelicals have these higher-than-expected vax rates. But there also seems to be a sizable state-level intercept
Education also explains a lot, but not the Iowa pattern

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More from @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
30 Jul
I think bias in US electoral institutions is probably a bigger threat to representative government in American than almost anything else. The growing rural bias of the Senate+EC (graphs via @davidshor) nearly ensures Rs will deny Ds fair majoritarian control for at least a decade
Plus, bc of the current bias in the House & 2022 redistricting harms, Ds r very very likely to lose control of Congress. Extrapolating historical trends, current polling indicates they'll be @ 48% in polls on eday. Polarization gets Ds ~1% back. But they need 51.5-52%. (MOE is 6)
When ppl ask me if we are approaching civil war, I tend to say no — Instead, we are rapidly nearing a time when the majority will need 52-53% to win, & a ruling authoritarian minority will enact policies that harm the other 200m+ citizens w/o meaningful electoral accountability
Read 7 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
27 Jul
.@BenSasse & others have argued that a decline in religiosity in America has left ppl vulnerable to the false spiritual satisfaction of conspiracy theories & sectarianism, eg in QAnon.

But we find the opposite. The least religious are the least credulous:
economist.com/graphic-detail…
And it’s not just QAnon; Our Economist/YouGov data show white evangelical Christians are also disproportion likely to believe other conspiracies — eg about the 2020 election, but also about vaccines and the moon landing. True even after controlling for demographics and politics.
Finally, the relationship between church attendance & conspiratorial thinking is positive even if you omit evangelical Christians, though less so. They are driving the trend—but the most religious Americans regardless are more likely to adopt phony theories than the least devout.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
19 Jul
This reminds me of the time I was coding in a Starbucks & an 80yr old man, unsolicited & bc I “looked good with computers,” whipped out a chunky 2005-looking Dell laptop & instructed me to remove a “real nasty” webpage his “twin brother” bookmarked. It was hardcore incest porn.
He offered me $50 for my help (and silence, presumably). You know, a single bill pulled out of one of those old man rubber-banded balls of cash. I refused. Then he pushed his walker outside and left with his wife.
I don’t go back there.
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
17 Jul
Idk, it seems almost impossible to attribute causality of the current covid wave to CDC masking policies vs Delta variant. Our YouGov/Economist survey data suggest the CDC announcement didn’t really even change trends in masking rates for vaccinated or unvaccinated Americans.
People should focus on opinion leaders rather than gov advice — we know support for Trump and news source drives way more masking/vaccination behavior more than attention to news or trust in scientists + institutions. Blame the source of anti-vax opinion before gov guidelines.
Yes
Read 6 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
13 Jul
A rough point projection is that the Democrats will win 47% of the two-party vote, depending on how you average current polls, in next year's House midterms. That would be a bloodbath—and they'd probably lose the Senate too. (Again all conditional on a R+6 national environment.)
The "conditional" part here is key, since the uncertainty on a point prediction a yr & a half away is like 10 points on vote share. I would note, however, that people objected based on this fallacy in both 2018 and 2020 when fundamentals nailed natl shares
Another point is that once election subversion became a partisan issue, whatever punishment Republicans would have faced for it shrunk dramatically. You can see this in the current polling for the generic House ballot, presidential approval, and partisan fav ratings
Read 4 tweets
G. Elliott Morris Profile picture
9 Jul
Just shy of a majority of Republicans believe states should override the results of the popular vote of their citizens, and a supermajority believes Trump is the rightful president
economist.com/united-states/…
Some ppl are asking me to clarify that these numbers are from Nov 2020, which is right and I should have put that in the OG tweet (even though it's on the graph already).

But note that updated numbers are similar! 74% of Rs in YouGov/Econ polls say Biden is illegitimate pres.
Read 4 tweets

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