Delta has been the dominant strain in many states since June.
The quoted doctor claims no pre-existing condition in half (debateable) implying something new afoot.
Yet the UK did not see a spike in Pediatric disease, or general virulence, with its now waning Delta wave:
3/n
So what is new?
There’s a spike in viruses that present a much bigger risk to kids. RSV positivity in the Sun Belt is >30% and we are having an unseasonal surge in several viruses … globally. Compare Aug ‘20 to Aug ‘21.
These viruses routinely affect healthy kids.
4/n
RSV is unseasonally surging nationally — and globally.
It’s the most common severe respiratory infection in infants and causes 66k deaths worldwide annually.
5/n
RSV is particularly up in many of the Sun Belt states that are always mentioned by the media and politicized “experts” like @PeterHotez and blue check social media doctors like @Cleavon_MD whose post inspired this thread.
6/n
And there are spikes in metapneumovirus almost everywhere except the Northeast.
7/n
The UK is experiencing and ongoing and accelerating unseasonal spike in RSV and other viruses as their Delta wave wanes. New Zealand’s unusual RSV spike appears to have peaked.
8/n
So why is all of this important?
Because coinfection with RSV and SCoV2 will make it seem like there’s a spike in C19 Pediatric disease, when it may not be the culprit. There’s nothing about RSV that makes it clinically distinct from C19 — except higher severity in kids.
9/n
So why is there an unseasonal spike in RSV?
Theories abound including “weakening” of the immune system w/ 18m of isolation.
We all are exposed to RSV in childhood. By 2yo, 80% of kids have had at least 1 RSV infection (2/3 in the 1st year of life). Reinfection is common.
10/n
There is also some interesting research around RSV “latency”: it “hides out” in our cells.
This is a numerical & narrative thread looking at the relationship between NPI (mandate) stringency and state level COVID outcomes in the USA.
Contents: 1) discuss motivation 2) present methods and sources 3) present results and implications
2
Motivation:
NPIs are disruptive. Nowhere in life do we entertain harm unless there is potential benefit. We are 16 months into this and have completed a full "epidemic cycle". We are in a period of COVID-19 quiescence nationally.
It's a good time to examine the results.
3/
So why examine the USA in isolation?
1) We have a heterogenous response (Oxford Stringency Avg 41.6 SDEV 9.2)
2) We have diverse demographics in key variables
3) '57, '68, 2009 Influenza pandemic outcomes suggest wide inter-country variation and 2+ years to "mature"
I will be discussing this paper (along with a recent contribution) in an upcoming thread, but it highlights the importance of system level thinking over analyzing an intervention in isolation:
"In Hong Kong and Bangkok during 2008–2011, large randomized controlled trials were conducted to investigate the efficacy of surgical face masks and enhanced hand hygiene in reducing transmission of influenza in households."
3/n
"[Influenza A is believed to spread via contact, large droplets and aerosols, but the relative importance of each of these modes of transmission is unclear. Volunteer studies suggest that infections via aerosol transmission may have a higher risk of febrile illness.]"
3) Review the # of patients required to assess efficacy & safety in the <18yo population
4) Review "# needed to treat" (NNT) & "# needed to harm" (NNH)
5) Extend discussion to "# needed to vaccinate" (NNV) & possible limitations of this concept
2/n
I downloaded the VAERS data for 6-17yo (so effectively just 16yo and 17yo) validated through 5/19/2021. I restricted analysis only "serious" events (returned 124 results).
The quoted thread, applies to all aspects of COVID policy.
One can’t discuss the limitations of archaic compartmental models, subtleties of inferential statistics, & computational modeling under uncertainty to incurious, social-credit seeking politicized acolytes.