1/n

🧵 about RSV, COVID, and grifting

Social media grift in the name of “public health” begins anew on the eve of school openings.

The expected July-Aug Sun Belt surge coincided with “Delta” => good times for politicized fear porn.

But there’s more to the story…
2/n

Delta has been the dominant strain in many states since June.

The quoted doctor claims no pre-existing condition in half (debateable) implying something new afoot.

Yet the UK did not see a spike in Pediatric disease, or general virulence, with its now waning Delta wave:
3/n

So what is new?

There’s a spike in viruses that present a much bigger risk to kids. RSV positivity in the Sun Belt is >30% and we are having an unseasonal surge in several viruses … globally. Compare Aug ‘20 to Aug ‘21.

These viruses routinely affect healthy kids.
4/n

RSV is unseasonally surging nationally — and globally.

It’s the most common severe respiratory infection in infants and causes 66k deaths worldwide annually.
5/n

RSV is particularly up in many of the Sun Belt states that are always mentioned by the media and politicized “experts” like @PeterHotez and blue check social media doctors like @Cleavon_MD whose post inspired this thread.
6/n

And there are spikes in metapneumovirus almost everywhere except the Northeast.
7/n

The UK is experiencing and ongoing and accelerating unseasonal spike in RSV and other viruses as their Delta wave wanes. New Zealand’s unusual RSV spike appears to have peaked.
8/n

So why is all of this important?

Because coinfection with RSV and SCoV2 will make it seem like there’s a spike in C19 Pediatric disease, when it may not be the culprit. There’s nothing about RSV that makes it clinically distinct from C19 — except higher severity in kids.
9/n

So why is there an unseasonal spike in RSV?

Theories abound including “weakening” of the immune system w/ 18m of isolation.

We all are exposed to RSV in childhood. By 2yo, 80% of kids have had at least 1 RSV infection (2/3 in the 1st year of life). Reinfection is common.
10/n

There is also some interesting research around RSV “latency”: it “hides out” in our cells.

erj.ersjournals.com/content/46/sup…
11/n

The main point of this 🧵 is to arm you with context and data as the grifters scream louder.

If their purpose is to promote vaccination, then it should be done without fear.

That they pump fear without context on the eve of much needed school openings is immoral.
12/n

@Cleavon_MD has been a doctor for fewer months than my number of years in the ER.
He’s mostly about his media profile and politicizing the pandemic.

Play along if you want to sacrifice the well being of children for another year.

Alternatively, reject this cynical game.
13/n

Some mentions who can provide further context to this thread:

@ID_ethics
@MartinKulldorff
@covidtweets
@kerpen
@justin_hart
@Emily_Burns_V
@sdbaral

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More from @contrarian4data

14 Jul
1/n

Interesting take, because I'm sick of people being triggered by arithmetic, cost-benefit analysis, and conflating CFR/IFR.

Facts:

1) ~330 Pediatric deaths over 17 months with a +SCoV2 test through 7/14/21

2) We've had 27M Pediatric infections through 4/14/21 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Sehttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd
2/n

Facts (cont):

3) 65 Pediatric C19 deaths were +SCoV2 with pneumonia. An additional 37 were from MIS-C.

4) ~40% of Pediatric C19 deaths are not due to C19
(35% in US review & 59% in UK review)

5) Makes sense as ~30-40% of Influenza is asymptomatic
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Sehttps://www.cdc.gov/mis/cases/index.htmlhttps://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e2.htm?s_cid=mmhttps://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-689684/v1
3/n

In the linked thread, @jeremyfaust estimates the Pediatric C19 fatality rate to be 1:10,000.

The upper bound is (330/27m)*0.6 => ~1:140,000

The estimate overshoots by at least 15x.

But that's still not the issue!

It's about value based decision making and risk analysis.
Read 9 tweets
1 Jul
1/

This is a numerical & narrative thread looking at the relationship between NPI (mandate) stringency and state level COVID outcomes in the USA.

Contents:
1) discuss motivation
2) present methods and sources
3) present results and implications
2

Motivation:

NPIs are disruptive. Nowhere in life do we entertain harm unless there is potential benefit. We are 16 months into this and have completed a full "epidemic cycle". We are in a period of COVID-19 quiescence nationally.

It's a good time to examine the results.
3/

So why examine the USA in isolation?

1) We have a heterogenous response (Oxford Stringency Avg 41.6 SDEV 9.2)

2) We have diverse demographics in key variables

3) '57, '68, 2009 Influenza pandemic outcomes suggest wide inter-country variation and 2+ years to "mature"
Read 30 tweets
16 Jun
1/n

I will be discussing this paper (along with a recent contribution) in an upcoming thread, but it highlights the importance of system level thinking over analyzing an intervention in isolation:

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
2/n

"In Hong Kong and Bangkok during 2008–2011, large randomized controlled trials were conducted to investigate the efficacy of surgical face masks and enhanced hand hygiene in reducing transmission of influenza in households."
3/n

"[Influenza A is believed to spread via contact, large droplets and aerosols, but the relative importance of each of these modes of transmission is unclear. Volunteer studies suggest that infections via aerosol transmission may have a higher risk of febrile illness.]"
Read 17 tweets
24 May
This is a thread discussing Pediatric COVID-19 vaccination.

Contents:

1) Detailed review of Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) for the 16yo-17yo age group
wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html

2) Examine Pediatric mortality estimates & compare to adverse event rate

1/n
Contents (cont):

3) Review the # of patients required to assess efficacy & safety in the <18yo population

4) Review "# needed to treat" (NNT) & "# needed to harm" (NNH)

5) Extend discussion to "# needed to vaccinate" (NNV) & possible limitations of this concept

2/n
I downloaded the VAERS data for 6-17yo (so effectively just 16yo and 17yo) validated through 5/19/2021. I restricted analysis only "serious" events (returned 124 results).

wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html

3/n
Read 27 tweets
15 May
The quoted thread, applies to all aspects of COVID policy.

One can’t discuss the limitations of archaic compartmental models, subtleties of inferential statistics, & computational modeling under uncertainty to incurious, social-credit seeking politicized acolytes.
People do not realize how numerically naive the medical establishment, & life science in general, is & has always been.

Add politics to the mix, & it becomes a potent mix of tribalism & misinformed morality.

I went silent when my current family got drawn in w/ repeated doxxing.
Some public Twatter profiles who bravely do not tow the line:
@VPrasadMDMPH, @MonicaGandhi9, @TracyBethHoeg,
@sdbaral,
@MartinKulldorff

They can only say so much w/ careers & professional standing on the line.

Few know that 2 have a more wrong than right politicized boss.
Read 5 tweets

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