What Alameda is trying to do still astounds me, to some degree. A tiny team -- ten people, at some points, not even triple that now -- trying to build the world's best crypto quant trading firm, and OTC desk, and MM service, all 24/7. It sounds impossible.
Even more astounding is that we actually do it. Day in, day out, our models are still (almost) always fantastic, our quotes (almost) always live, our trades (almost???) always good. I've never seen a team as talented and dedicated as ours -- I'm not sure I've heard of one.
I was mostly expecting the team to be impressive in the typical ways -- everyone who pre-dated me and everyone we've hired since has been super smart, clearly talented, etc.

I'm blown away by how far we've pushed ourselves.
We've had months with 3 (sometimes 2) traders handling 24/7 coverage -- all on the same time zone, including weekends and Christmas. The term "10x engineer" no longer means anything to me, @nateparke was doing 10 engineers' jobs alone for a while because, hey, it had to get done.
Rather than make our lives easier as we've grown, we've taken on more -- spent countless hours optimizing models and latency, put in the hard, thankless work earning OTC business, figured out how to actually do accounting for the world's most complex balance sheet.
We made something like the world's third best 2020 election models. We launched one of the biggest yield farming operations in the world -- overnight, if I recall correctly. We've learned to navigate news regardless of language and regardless of which billionaire said it.
United by the common goal of following the money, we put in the work and tail it wherever it goes -- no matter if that means not sleeping, canceling occasional plans, or consuming a lot of coffee*.

This is all grueling and it's only possible for me because I genuinely love being around Alameda.

Our main trading slack channel is called #trading-floor. Our shitposting channel is called #trading-ceiling, and it's easily my favorite social media platform.
They're some of the best people I've been lucky enough to know, we're working hard on the coolest problems I've ever seen, and this space is the most dynamic and interesting in the world. Every day feels like a dream, and I'm so proud to be a part of it.

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

28 Jul
For a few weeks, BTC was boring -- it only moved like 10% over the course of (plural) days. I hope you all caught up on sleep, because crypto is now fun again! What exactly has been going on?

A thread about the calm and the storm.
On Sunday night, BTC bounded up quite fast -- it rallied steadily from $34k to $36k or so, and then shot RIGHT up to $40k all at once. What's the story there?
I think a few small effects combined here. First, there was some vague positive sentiment:
- Elon is in a "he loves us" phase
- Now maybe Amazon is in too? Maybe not but, like, maybe?
- China FUD in general, maybe they'll buy BTC instead?
Read 15 tweets
21 Jul
Up until the last day or so, the market has been stuck in a fairly consistent "zone" for a bit now. It's honestly been sorta ... boring?

A thread about X.
Why did the market fall yesterday? I don't have the most compelling answer for you, but I can tell you how Alameda is thinking about things.
NEWS

There's been a decent build-up of negative news, I guess -> Elon chilled on BTC, China cracked down for the nth time, GBTC unlock is maybe negative to many? And then a few other things.
Read 13 tweets
6 Jul
How is it possible that it was correct for this plane to board 2 hours ago and then sit on the runway because of rain they already knew about
I’m like 60% sure the pilot is gonna have worked long enough that they force us to deplane and get a new pilot in another hour or two and I’m currently arranging a bloc to charter private if that happens AMA
People are replying with too many realistic explanations I’m worried my intent here wasn’t conveyed well
Read 7 tweets
23 Jun
Word on the street is: this price graph is fucked up. What happened?

A thread about the calm, the storm, and how to tell the difference.
There have been a few prevailing narratives lately:
- China FUD driving prices down, U.S. maybe to follow?
- Bitcoin is bad for the environment, or at least Elon thinks so
- Maybe with this dip, some of the institutions who bought are under water and need to sell? (Saylor, etc.)
None of that is concrete, though, and people vacillate between over-stating the pieces of news they want to hear and under-stating the ones they don't. So let's break it down a little, and look at some stuff which *is* concrete.
Read 19 tweets
16 Jun
The macro market DOES drive crypto, but only when it has to. In March 2020, crypto had no choice but to go down with (e.g.) SPY — the whole world was watching, and when the whole world watches people will buy BTC when it lags below SPY, and vice-versa.
Honestly? Crypto traders don’t give a shit about what happens when the traditional markets aren’t going crazy. I literally couldn’t tell you which direction SPY moved .3% in (or whatever) yesterday.
But when SPY crashes 20%? Yeah, we’ve gotta follow it. And because we’re following it, our trades will follow it — not all the time, but enough for a correlation to exist.
Read 8 tweets
10 Jun
Let's look at two investors, Adam and Beth. Both are 25 years old, both make $200k/year (lump sum) and expect to keep doing so for their careers (not realistic, but let's just use that for now). Adam invests it all in a 5%/year fund, Beth's fund is 50/50 to make +30% and -10%.
By age 60, Adam will always have around $20m put away (ignoring taxes and expenses or whatever, but this is just a comparative exercise so it's OK to ignore thise) -- there's no uncertainty here.
What about Beth? Her EV on earnings each year is higher than Adam's, of course, but let's dig deeper. Let's look at her distribution of outcomes by age 60.

One natural question: what are the chances she has more money than Adam does?
Read 10 tweets

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