1. Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus, appears to be taking yet another page from Putin’s playbook. He seems to be systematically hunting down and assassinating dissidents. Grounded airplanes, an Olympian nearly kidnapped, now a murder of a dissident in Ukraine.
2. When I interviewed presidential candidates and opposition figures in Minsk, the KGB followed me everywhere. It’s a police state, with the KGB headquarters dominating the Minsk cityscape, a constant reminder that you’re being watched.
3. But Lukashenko is getting bolder. He’s long tried to have it both ways, flirting with the West for concessions while not straying too far from Putin, but it’s now clear that the West’s approach has failed and he’s decided to simply hunt people down, no matter the costs.
4. This is part of a broader trend of transnational repression and transnational assassination. Exile is no longer remotely safe. Dictators like Lukashenko are brazenly sending a message: we will hunt you down anywhere on the planet. Watch your back. Don’t you dare speak out.
5. If the West doesn’t punch back — hard and fast and more than he bargained for — Lukashenko will simply do more. He must be given serious consequences, or more murders, more torture, and more kidnappings will follow.
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