I hope many read the Doherty modeling as it is both eye opening & huge fudge. The results rest on heroic contact tracing, indeed an addendum is added where presumable Doherty was told to go back & redo everything assuming "optimal" 'test trace isolate & quarantine'. 1/n #auspol
Taking the assumptions and modeling used at face value, at 50% vax we would need to go into lockdown harder than NSW is now 75% of the time (273 days/yr), 168 days at 60% and 80 days at 70%. You might say, well 80% is 0%! Well not really:
They end the simulations at 180 days, not even a full year or all of the seasons, and respiratory viruses are seasonal. You can see here how the simulation cuts off the data for the higher vaccination rates to make them look better. New infections don't even peak at 180 days...
Even so, the "let it rip" modeling shows daily new infections go to 55,000 (80% vax) - 70,000 (50% vax) even in the optimal “all adults” strategy. All the scenarios pretty much show us running out of COP ICU beds (1964 nationally, and other people get sick).
Again, the simulation time horizon has been fudged- 80% vax scenario doesn't even peak within the window. Even so, there are only 1964 ICU beds, and the health system is usually thinly funded & tightly balance. Vented patients take many more ICU bed days.
Deaths are also fudged due to the horizons. They don't even bother showing the 80% vax number it is fudged so badly. "World's best scientific analysis" says Scomo right now on the TV..
So this table is full of garbage data as it clips at 180 days and the graph above show how badly they clip.. even the 50% vax number clips.
They also use an r0 of 6.32 (not 8) when even their y-axis chart crime graphs which have been squished show r0 of 8.
r0 starts at 8 here, and I approximated the 50% and 80% scenarios with a linear scale.. basically its all in the "optimal test, contact tracing, isolate and quarantine".. which is already breaking down. 50% vax versus 80% vax is about 0.6 to 0.7 off the r0 budget with their data.
With realistic TTIQ, we need to stay into some form of lockdown under all the scenarios. Letting it rip will result in hard lockdown (harder than NSW in July 2021) 22-75% of the time by their own data.
Then, the entire paper is repeated as an "addendum" where it looks like Doherty has been told to go back and remodel everything because the results for "let it rip" don't look great at all! This is tacked onto the end after everything, so it looks like done at a later date.
The summary of the paper I will leave to Doherty themselves: Herd immunity is unlikely ‘even at very high levels of vaccine uptake (80% or above)’.
So this doesn't look like health advice, it looks like a fudged model for a political agenda. Everyone involved should now go away and read these papers (1) The Hammer and the Dance tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-th…
(2) COVID-19: A realistic approach to community management by Prof Robert Clancy.
(3) COVID-19: Where Are We Going? by the same author.
What's a better approach that "letting it rip"? Eliminate the current outbreaks and build a proper quarantine to not let it in, that doesn't share ventilation, where workers are issued the proper equipment, outside of cities.
Here's the paper. I hope a few data scientists read it. doherty.edu.au/uploads/conten…
You've been given a gift here @AlboMP

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More from @matt_barrie

19 Mar 20
Saw pretty disturbing message from friend who is a senior ophthalmologist in the UK.
"800 ICU beds and we need 4000. The GPs are closed only Skype phone calls. We are doing emergencies but busy trying to cancel 2000 patients a day we see. 1/many
We have 22 anesthetic machines that can be used as respirators we will lose those and then anaesthetists. The anaesthetists were being mutineers yesterday refusing to do any general anaesthetic as it is higher risk. It is chaos.
In Scotland they are redeploying the ophthalmologists to the front line. In Italy they are turning eye hospitals into covid hospitals. Plus we are up close and personal, a lot of ophthalmologists and ENT have died. Dentists are a high risk too.
Read 7 tweets
13 Mar 20
Got sent this today. Can't vouch for its authenticity. #auspol #ausbiz 1/many

Just got a one hour briefing from a cabinet minister after their full day on Covid-19 with the chief medical officers of aus, uk, USA and Israel and prime minister yesterday. Summary as follows:
- 60% of Aussies will be infected

- South Korea is testing 15,000 per day. Mortality rate there is 0.6%. This makes it a bad flu (10X normal flu rate). That’s the expected mortality rate in Australia
- mortality rate grows exponentially from age of 70 as per normal flu. Mortality rates there are 10-15%

- so deaths in Australia to be tens of thousands, mainly aged

- mortality is not out and out their main concern, it’s a third of the workforce being sick and economic impact
Read 10 tweets

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