- 60% of Aussies will be infected
- South Korea is testing 15,000 per day. Mortality rate there is 0.6%. This makes it a bad flu (10X normal flu rate). That’s the expected mortality rate in Australia
- South Korea is testing 15,000 per day. Mortality rate there is 0.6%. This makes it a bad flu (10X normal flu rate). That’s the expected mortality rate in Australia
- mortality rate grows exponentially from age of 70 as per normal flu. Mortality rates there are 10-15%
- so deaths in Australia to be tens of thousands, mainly aged
- mortality is not out and out their main concern, it’s a third of the workforce being sick and economic impact
- so deaths in Australia to be tens of thousands, mainly aged
- mortality is not out and out their main concern, it’s a third of the workforce being sick and economic impact
- there is no stopping the virus, masks limited use, advice is to get it early while there are hospital beds. Masks only useful to stop infected people infecting others. There is one mask factory in Australia which the Australian defence force has now taken over to produce 5m/mo
- most of our sunny paper is made in Adelaide, so don't worry about that!
- vaccine up to a year away
- Govt response is not to stop the virus but to flatten the peak of the bell curve, so we have only 1-2m infected per month.
- vaccine up to a year away
- Govt response is not to stop the virus but to flatten the peak of the bell curve, so we have only 1-2m infected per month.
Worst month expected to be June, easing by September and all done be December
- we will be in recession next quarter. This is a 1 in 100 year economic event but we are going to manage it much better than in past
- we will be in recession next quarter. This is a 1 in 100 year economic event but we are going to manage it much better than in past
- tomorrow the government will announce a whopping 1% of GDP fiscal injection to prop up the economy. This will be focussed on small business investment. This Is biggest Govt spend over our history (to be spent over 90 day period). The banks will come to the party passing on cuts
- hospitals are cancelling elective surgeries to make bed space for the aged infected
- difference between this and SARS for instance is that China failed to act for 6 weeks. It could have been contained
- difference between this and SARS for instance is that China failed to act for 6 weeks. It could have been contained
- however China sees the end in sight. Iron etc prices have not dropped. This is because Chinese mills are stockpiling, getting ready for massive production and rebuilding rush later in year. Australia will boom again from this
- our business should be prepared for how to get contractor resources on the expectation of up to a third of our staff being ill at a time, how to work remotely etc.
- Trivia: the reason the Iranian political elite are all ill is because the Chinese have been engaging heavily.
- Trivia: the reason the Iranian political elite are all ill is because the Chinese have been engaging heavily.
