@tomkeene @FerroTV
Bond Bomb
"Another, less-understood risk is the potential for price declines should yields tick up just slightly. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury were to rise just 10 basis points, the resulting price drop would wipe out an entire year’s interest income..
. That sounds like a miserable investment to me.""
- Jim Tisch, Loews CEO
These days, behind nearly every extreme move, is a hedge fund or an asset manager in distresss.
Think Archegos or Melvin Capital, as examples.
This morning we learned that Alphadyne Asset Management
marketwatch.com/story/hedge-fu… has lost about $1.5 billion short the fixed income market in the last several months as it positioned for a curve steepening and higher interest rates.
I suspect the panic move lower in the ten year US note's yield in July -to 1.11% (when Alphadyne lost
almost five percent) was, in part, short covering in bonds by Alphadyne and some other similarly positioned funds.
I often write that 'tops are processes and bottoms are events.'
This might be such a bottoming event (in yields) - in which short covering in bonds have created a
marvelous opportunity (to short).
I have recently been adding to my short $TLT position in the .belief that the bond market is mispriced. @threadreaderapp unroll

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More from @DougKass

8 Jul
I will be infrequently tweeting going forward, but here are my opening missives on @realmoney yesterday:
Jul 07, 2021 | 10:00 AM EDT DOUG KASS
What's Up With the 10 Year Yield?
* Hitting a yield of 1.35% this morning - the 10 year note price has defied consensus expectations
* The drop in yields has spurred a strong pivot back to growth (from value) in recent trading sessions - see Amazon's amazing advance
* Three prominent economists provide solid reasons for the recent decline in the 10 year yield and the rise in its price
Jul 07, 2021 | 09:30 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Beware of False Prophets
"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves."
- Matthew 7:15
In a maturing bull market, contrarian views can be enlightening.
I will again note how critical one
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
For more than a decade I have done my best to communicate value added analysis on Twitter but I not only get nothing in return - I get vitriol and hate.
I have tried to communicate with the good fish - but it is impossible with sharks swimming around me constantly.
Perhaps it is me - but, for whatever reason, I probably will now take a lengthy leave from Twitter.
I have no need to build my 'franchise' on Twitter nor am I trying to sell a service to tweeps.
I am no longer interested in continued criticism of Fin TV or "talking
heads" who never met a market they didn't like, exude uber confidence (despite a complex investment mosaic), memorize superficial bullet points (in reaction to questions) and chronically sweep their mistakes under the carpet.
I will not change them. They will sling their BS
Read 5 tweets
28 Jun
@TSTRMPro
Jun 28, 2021 | 12:51 PM EDT DOUG KASS
We're at a Moment of Unreasonable Confidence
* Is it time to expect the unexpected?
* Too much "group stink" and "first level thinking" has invaded the markets
* As an example, just look at the shares of General Motors ($GM) and
Delta Air Lines ($DAL) - both have been the subject of near universal optimism in the financial media and elsewhere (read: they are rolling over)
* Does it makes sense to be uber confident in view after a near doubling in the averages over the last 16 months?
* Always consider
upside reward vs. downside risk - especially when few others are!

"To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect."
- Oscar Wilde
The pervasive and foul odor of "Group Stink" continues.
Importantly it is being delivered with extreme confidence and lives in a
Read 9 tweets
25 Jun
@realmoney @tomkeen @jimcramer
Jun 25, 2021 | 10:14 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Shorted QQQ!
* At $349.70
The many Group Stinkers that worship at the altar of price momentum (read: Fin TV, money managers, scribes, commentators, etc.) universally liked Amazon (AMZN) and its price action
up to this week.
We witnessed the adulation incessantly in business media platforms as Amazon's shares continued to move from the lower left to the upper right.
This recalls Divine Ms M's wonderful pinned tweet:
"There is nothing like price to change sentiment."
While I am
quite optimistic about Amazon over the next several years, I cautioned on AMZN on Wednesday - citing three potentially significant headwinds over the near term.
Today league leading Amazon is down another - $45/share after being down by about -$60/share on Thursday.
Read 4 tweets
21 May
@realmoney The Market is No Longer An Eating Sardine, It is A Trading Sardine
* The trader in me says the market has a slight upside bias after several recent successful tests
* But the fundamentalist in me says the market has alot of downside risk
* When in such a conflict
and conviction is blurry, I tend to trade (and make short term rentals) rather than invest for the longer term (and avoid positioning out into too far into the future)

"There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their
traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the
Read 5 tweets
18 May
I remain a non consensus bitcoin bear:
The problem with fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar, is that monetary authorities can create an unlimited amount of new dollars or other currencies - making it look, to some, like a Ponzi scheme.
The problem with crypto currencies,
like bitcoin and ethereum, is that anyone can make an unlimited number of new crypto currencies - making it, too, look to some like a Ponzi scheme.
Ponzi schemes and scams are only visible to those that have no sense of history or want to believe in magic.
I believe
Cryptocurrency can be viewed as Tinkerbell's light - its power source is based solidly on enough children believing in it. @jimcramer @tomkeene @cnbcfastmoney @SquawkCNBC @MelissaLeeCNBC @riskreversal @guyadami @FerroTV I would be short rather than long
Read 4 tweets

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