4. And it is not just waning, if true. (Ab levels decline after natural infection, too, but protection is not lost. Memory cells play a role in re-infection.)
5. VE for severe disease is currently 70-80% at most (and still possibly biased).
3/ 6. Vaccine has side effects, including deaths. They never report effects on all-cause deaths/hospitalizations. Why?
7. Now 3rd dose vaccination with little to no empirical basis and numerous reasons for concern. Vaccination during a rising wave is a dangerous experiment.
4/ 8. Delta proved endemic in UK/others (case wave, no significant mortality wave). They keep ignoring the evidence about Delta. Unsubstantiated fear mongering.
Lots of doubts about their policies. Since Mar 2020.
2/ Trying to split a total of 243 (eTable 1) into mutually exclusive categories of vaccinated and reconcile with a flow chart (Figure 2, with additions).
No clear understanding how the numbers are split.
3/ However, it is clear to me that the data are hiding excess risk between dose 1 and one week after dose 2.
Likely >2-fold, (1.3-fold under the most conservative counting).
2/ Here is what we see:
Continued divergence between infected vulnerable and non-vulnerable (by age).
Was fairly parallel in winter.
This divergence is the most important difference between current (summer) wave and winter wave.
1/ Thread: Vaccination of recovered.
This line of research has been interpreted as: ”People who have had a PCR confirmed covid-19 infection may only require one dose“.
Is there another possible interpretation?
Recall: vaccinating recovered is newscience. bmj.com/content/372/bm…
2/ Most exposed clear up the virus without much trouble.
Likewise, if re-encountered through respiratory route.
Injection is not natural route for re-encounter.
“That offender, which I handled easily, shows up on my immune cells, far away!”
Is the immune system confused?
3/ Exaggerated response to the 1st dose in recovered. Good or bad?
Recall: over-reaction is part of the pathology.
What would be the response when re-encountering the virus/variant through natural route, after 1st dose?
Over-reaction? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
1/ UK: Delta variant:
What can we learn, and what can we not learn, from PHE reports?
About the IFR? flu at most
About vacciine effect on death? nothing
2/ See here IFR=0.1%, 0.3%
Why estimates differ?
Several explanations, but one we’ll need later: risk is not # death/# people. It is # deaths/# person-time.
Need to add up the number of days each person was observed to compute “rate” (epidemiology).
Risk is over people AND time.
3/ We don’t have time (days) for all 92,056 cases. We only have it for 11,250 (28 days per person).
Regardless, these are not all cases. By now it’s clear that 80-90% of infections are asymptomatic.
Therefore IFR must be << 0.3%
Flu. Or less.
Delta much less virulent than Alpha