1/
Cancelled my subscription to Ha’aretz after they rejected my paper on Sweden (published on Medium). (They were scared.)

1. I/others analyzed published VE studies from Israel and pointed to evidence of biases & over-estimation

2. They claimed ~95% VE. False for all endpoints.
2/
3. Little/no VE for infection.

4. And it is not just waning, if true. (Ab levels decline after natural infection, too, but protection is not lost. Memory cells play a role in re-infection.)

5. VE for severe disease is currently 70-80% at most (and still possibly biased).
3/
6. Vaccine has side effects, including deaths. They never report effects on all-cause deaths/hospitalizations. Why?

7. Now 3rd dose vaccination with little to no empirical basis and numerous reasons for concern. Vaccination during a rising wave is a dangerous experiment.
4/
8. Delta proved endemic in UK/others (case wave, no significant mortality wave). They keep ignoring the evidence about Delta. Unsubstantiated fear mongering.

Lots of doubts about their policies. Since Mar 2020.

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More from @prof_shahar

22 Jul
1/
They claimed that lockdown before the peak terminated the rise.

They were wrong. False claim.
Refutation: Sweden & South Dakota (for example).

Now they claim that mass vaccination "decoupled deaths from cases".

2/
They are wrong again. False claim.
Refutation: Sweden & Netherlands (for example).

Let’s see what happened there in recent months.
3/
Here is an impressive case wave in Sweden & Netherlands, which showed up half way through the decline in the winter wave.
Read 7 tweets
13 Jul
1/
Israel: another paper on VE
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
Count of cases is very confusing:

2/
Trying to split a total of 243 (eTable 1) into mutually exclusive categories of vaccinated and reconcile with a flow chart (Figure 2, with additions).

No clear understanding how the numbers are split.
3/
However, it is clear to me that the data are hiding excess risk between dose 1 and one week after dose 2.

Likely >2-fold, (1.3-fold under the most conservative counting).
Read 4 tweets
9 Jul
1/
Scared by Delta wave? Read this thread.
Is Delta endemic wave that would have gone unnoticed in normal times?

Projections (& some philosophy at the end)

Key points:
Most COVID deaths are 60+.
Trend in elderly is the key - not all ages, not younger.

2/
Here is what we see:
Continued divergence between infected vulnerable and non-vulnerable (by age).
Was fairly parallel in winter.
This divergence is the most important difference between current (summer) wave and winter wave.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?…
3/
Growth rate of moving average has been declining since June 28 (in both age groups)
Last data point: July 4.
Peak case wave at ~1.
Mid-July?

See detailed graphs here, by narrow age groups
Read 11 tweets
8 Jul
1/
Thread: Vaccination of recovered.
This line of research has been interpreted as: ”People who have had a PCR confirmed covid-19 infection may only require one dose“.
Is there another possible interpretation?
Recall: vaccinating recovered is newscience.
bmj.com/content/372/bm…
2/
Most exposed clear up the virus without much trouble.
Likewise, if re-encountered through respiratory route.
Injection is not natural route for re-encounter.
“That offender, which I handled easily, shows up on my immune cells, far away!”
Is the immune system confused?
3/
Exaggerated response to the 1st dose in recovered. Good or bad?
Recall: over-reaction is part of the pathology.
What would be the response when re-encountering the virus/variant through natural route, after 1st dose?
Over-reaction?
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Jun
1/
Israel: Missing COVID deaths in the Lancet paper on effectiveness.

NEW information, greater mystery. @federicolois

2/
On June 25, the last author of the Lancet paper interviewed on Israeli TV.

She reported that there were 570 COVID deaths of fully vaccinated people in Israel since the vaccination campaign began.

(fully vaccinated = “green pass”= 1 week post 2nd dose)
3/
Hebrew speakers can read a post by journalist @YaffaRaz including a video clip.

facebook.com/677092628/post…
Read 5 tweets
26 Jun
1/
UK: Delta variant:
What can we learn, and what can we not learn, from PHE reports?

About the IFR? flu at most

About vacciine effect on death? nothing Image
2/
See here IFR=0.1%, 0.3%
Why estimates differ?
Several explanations, but one we’ll need later: risk is not # death/# people. It is # deaths/# person-time.
Need to add up the number of days each person was observed to compute “rate” (epidemiology).
Risk is over people AND time. Image
3/
We don’t have time (days) for all 92,056 cases. We only have it for 11,250 (28 days per person).
Regardless, these are not all cases. By now it’s clear that 80-90% of infections are asymptomatic.
Therefore IFR must be << 0.3%
Flu. Or less.
Delta much less virulent than Alpha
Read 13 tweets

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