GDP will grow at 9.5% in 2021-22. 21.4%in Q1, 7.3% in Q2, 6.3% in Q3, 6.1% in Q4. 17.2% in the subsequent year: RBI
Recovery more important than inflation, which will remain closer to the 6% upper band. Inflation to moderate in the Oct-Dec quarter. #RBIPolicy
10 year (new one) sees yield go up to 6.23%. Not good.
VRRR window auctions have hajaar interest - so massive new VRRR auctions
(Variable rate repo = banks get to ask for slightly higher interest than fixed rate repo)
More OMOs and GSAP to come. This hasn't helped in the past but there will be a tipping point. Active trading is required, so GSAP will be across the spectrum
RBI will upload everything after the statement. I'm just too curious.
On tap TLTRO extended to Dec 31
Relaxation of MSF by dipping into SLR by 1% of NDTL extended (cumulative 3%) extended to Dec 31
If you don't know what this means, this will do nothing to change your life.
We are going to jump off from LIBOR like its a vat of toxic sewage. (it is)
So now everyone pls to renegotiate your contracts. (Already advised) Use anything that is widely accepted as a ref rate - and it wont be a restructuring
2nd wave will hit, so the meeting of debt service coverage ration etc. target date is moved to 1 oct 2022
Basically nothing much. There's trouble coming. Rates will remain low. Things should improve from Oct-Dec quarter.
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The biggest thing about e-RUPI that's not been talked about is: you can give welfare money to someone who has a loan and the bank can't appropriate it.
Also now the government can restrict a time (expires in 6months) or use case (only for hospitals) for a welfare scheme. Yes abuse will be there but can easily be found.
Even if the system is gamed in a few cases (Videcon, Siva etc), I think the IBC process is a very good thing for India to develop. Quoting low "recovery" rates is not the correct way to look at it, IMHO. (Thread)
Often quoted are recovery rates like 20%, 10% or even 3%. We must note that banks often pile up penal charges, interest after the account was NPA, and other fees as part of their "ask" - and this can be more than 50% or 60% of the amount they want!
The banks are also gaming this by demanding as high as they can. Penal interest and interest after account turns NPA are not to be accounted, but banks can demand them in a resolution process. This inflates the amount demanded, but banks don't expect this to be paid.
New projects: guarantee cover for loans for new projects, interest rate capped at 7.95% for health sector and 8.25% for other sectors.
This is good because it is not cash outflow from govt. You put a project, you have to default first only then will govt pay. But at 7.5% you should find it easy to not default.
MFI based new lending to be supported. This can be complicated. All defaulters with less than 90 days can apply => no NPA people will be covered.
I feel like the song "Cats in the cradle" again. The layman investor in 2000. The guy who knew (in 2007) that things would hit the fan, but not exactly how.
And the guy who's worried about the market now in 2021 - and the only lesson he's learnt is "Participate."
In 2007, October 29, I was like - what are these people afraid of? Make merry while the sun shines. Too focussed on "value" I said: capitalmind.in/2007/10/so-its…
And then, in just a few days more, I'd decided it was going to be over. November 10, 2007, wishing everyone Happy Diwali: capitalmind.in/2007/page/3/
Understanding India's bankruptcy laws needs more nuance. A company like Patanjali that takes loans on its own balance sheet to buy a Ruchi Soya, doesn't mean the banks are lending to Ruchi Soya.
Patanjali also has to pledge the Ruchi Soya shares it purchases, as part of that deal. Apart from those shares, there are corporate guarantees. If it doesn't service the loan, banks can sell the shares, if that's not enough, they should invoke the guarantee.
In general, any bankruptcy purchaser will want to fund the purchase partly by equity, partly by debt, and it's quite likely the same banks provide the debt; to them, it's actually a different borrower.