Thread by @ShaanVP

I invested in 47 startups in a year. Here's how the math shakes out:

$4m deployed , 47 companies ($85k avg check)
Median valuation I invested at = ~$16M

So... let's think out loud here..

in baseball terms:

startup investing is about slugging % (homeruns)
not batting average % (base hits)

let's call a homerun a company that exits for over $1B

According to @AngelList - funded startups have a 1/40 shot at becoming a unicorn 🦄 ($1b valuation).

Math scenarios:

avg entry valuation $16m, so a $1B exit is a 62x (not counting dilution, or sales above $1B)

let's use fuzzy math and call a 🦄 winner a 30x return

One 🦄 = 2.5M return (60% roi)
Two 🦄 = $5M return (breakeven)
Three 🦄 = $7.65M return (profitable)

Four 🦄 = $10.2M return
Five 🦄 = $12.75 return

And if one company breaks out and goes public or gets acquired at $10B+, we 5x the fund with that 1 company alone.

This is the beauty of micro funds. It doesn't take many winners to make great money.

looking at the portfolio... which companies are most likely to become 🦄 ??

GROUP #1 Already ~billion-ish dollar cos (I invested later stage for all tho)

@kraken - crypto exchange
@Deel - pay remote workers
@Replit - easiest place to code
@volans_i - delivery drones

Those are already mature.. So beyond those, which 5 startups are most likely to have a $1B+ exit?

For fun, and for future reflection.. I'll guess in public here.

This is based on some combo of current traction, market size, and shaan's gut instinct.

CONTENDER #1 - @mydukaanapp

This is Shopify for India. Over 2.5M merchants already.

Shopify is WAY too complicated for the avg person in india. Dukaan is stupidly simple.

Over 10M+ indian merchants will go digital next 10yrs..If Dukaan stays #1..🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄🦄

CONTENDER #2 - @GoldcastEvents

They make it easy to throw a virtual conference. B2B companies love them.

They already have 7-figure ARR, and their competitor (Hopin) has a much worse product but a $6-7B valuation.

If these guys turn on their sales jets, they will be $1B+.

CONTENDER #3 - @HoneHealth

They are a telehealth startup for men's health (mostly, testosterone for men with low T levels)

Strong traction, market is big, product has high retention,etc..

You can see this being big a la Hims/Ro.

CONTENDER #4 - @magic_labs

Passwords are shitty. They are insecure, and a pain in the ass. Magic lets any website create "passwordless" login.

No web app wants to build/maintain this for themselves. So they'll all use the best off-the-shelf one (magic)

CONTENDER #5 - [STEALTH]

dynamite founder, building a slick way to build internal tools. Retool has a headstart, but this product & founder are great.

It's hard to pick 5 out of the bunch, because I like them all (that's why I invested)

I am sure I'll be suprirsed which 5 actually turn out best in the end. That's why I wanted to write this down for some public record keeping

fwiw - I don't think I'm a great investor. I have tons of leaks in my game.

But I tend to be lucky. So we'll see.

And I'd bet it returns 4-5x in the 10 year period.

One thing I'm going to do more of is later stage SPVs. This seems like a no brainer. If you're accredited and want to be in on those, email me at shaan at shaanpuri dot com

oh and my biggest misses (that I could've / almost was a part of) of the year were:

@mainstreet
@BankMercury
@fridgenomore
@pipe

probably a bunch more, will need to think back!

big shoutout to our team - I love doing this with yall

@RomeenSheth who manages the fund and has way better judgement than me (knows how to say no, and when to say HELL YES)

@zlwaterfield - our ace scout!

@benmlevy - my right hand man

@suumitshah - eyes on ground in india!