The easiest way for most bettors to create NFL Power Rankings explained in a thread. (Key words in that sentence are "easiest" and "most bettors".)
The 0-100 method begins as it sounds, take a piece of paper and draw a line with 0 on one side and 100 on another.
0 = the worst team in NFL history
100 = the best team in NFL history
Plot four teams on the 0-100 scale based on how you feel about the team. Examples included...
Best: (KC 90)
Worst: (HOU 15)
Avg or Worse: (LAC 40)
Avg or Better: (TEN 60)
Continue to add teams in as you go. It is easiest to work from left to right. Just keep asking if the team you are rating is better or worse than each team on the plot. Once the answer is no, that is where the team should be plotted. Work through the league.
Once all the teams are plotted, your goal is to determine what the league range is.
League range = the difference in points between the best possible team and worst possible team.
The number usually falls between 21-28, it's your pick. This example uses 24.
If you want to make a point spread for any matchup, just use the proportion of the league range the team takes up. For example, let's do HOU (rating of 15) vs KC (rating of 90) with a league range of 24.
HOU (24 * 0.15) = 3.6
KC (24 * 0.90) = 21.6
21.6 - 3.6 = 18
KC -18 v HOU
After each week during the season, move teams around on the plot based on what you value in performance. Team exceeded expectations? Move them up. Team failed to meet expectations? Move them down. Just always work from left to right to find a place in the league.
As the league progresses and you learn more about the season, adjust the league range as needed. Usually it needs little tweaking, but, if something is off, a league range adjustment moves all teams together.
The upside of this method (in my opinion) is that it forces the view to always be on the big picture. It is easy to get excited about teams, but when all 32 are laid out relative to each other, it keeps over/under reactions in check effectively.
Obviously, there are downsides. This method is almost entirely subjective, nothing about it is automated and all adjustments are based largely on your feel, interpretation of play/stats and "gut", for lack of a better term. If any of those are way off, your ratings might suck.
However, the point of the thread is to explain an easy way for MOST bettors to make and maintain their own ratings without a ton of hassle. Is this the best way? Most likely not. At worst it is a fun exercise. At most it is a simple way for bettors to try make their own numbers.
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Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.
Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.
Here is a thread on how it works...
These are the seven statistics that you need to use. The goal of this "exercise" is to ultimately weight the output numbers of each team to the opponent allowance and then adjust for pace and pass rate.
Start by getting the defensive numbers for each team and organize by yards per rush allowed and yards per pass allowed.
On @YouBetterYouBet tonight, @JoeO670 told me that this week is the most popular download week of the year for podcasts. On that note, I thought I would share some of my favourite betting shows that I listen to each week for those travelling. Thread below 👇
More X's and O's focused than betting, but @CSimmsQB is able to talk about football in a way that everyone can understand. Every episode I learn a ton and high recommend it for those wanting to understand more about the game.
No brainer here. @AndyMSFW and @whale_capper have an incredible way of talking about betting and making it feel like you are in the room with them. The improvement and growth of the show the past three years is extremely well deserved. Easy sub for all.
I learned a simple way to calculate a baseline for NFL totals during my first bookmaking job almost a decade ago. I still use it today to spot numbers on the board at open which may be too low or too high. I thought I would explain today in a thread below to offer some value. 👇
The most important thing I learned to think about was how teams are affected by their opponent. Rather than thinking “what can these teams do together” to bet a total, I think, “does this opponent increase or decrease the likelihood of success in the matchup”. In order to do...
this, I like to look back at how a team has made their opponents better or worse this season. I set up my paper with the defences in question and list out opponents and their yards per play/rush attempt for the entire season against all opponents. The second temp is taking the...
Ok, a thread to wrap my thoughts on "Reverse Line Movement" so I never have to speak of it again here or on the podcast and can get back to paying attention to the games and betting markets...👇
Reverse line movement requires a bettor to follow a consensus report (more on these in a minute) to find games where the odds move in favour of a team receiving a low number of bets. This is perceived as a "sharp" side as books (in theory) have no reason to move the line.
The main issue is that as a bettor you must wait for the odds to move before identifying the reverse line movement. If the line has already moved you are putting yourself in a disadvantageous spot by betting at a worse number than those who took the original position.