Thread by @adamchernoff

Any NFL bettor can make (a fairly decent) total on their own with a pen, paper and seven basic stats.

Will this allow you to beat the books? Probably not. But it will answer questions and serve as a simple, basic place to begin making totals.

Here is a thread on how it works...

These are the seven statistics that you need to use. The goal of this "exercise" is to ultimately weight the output numbers of each team to the opponent allowance and then adjust for pace and pass rate.

Start by getting the defensive numbers for each team and organize by yards per rush allowed and yards per pass allowed.

Then evaluate the offensive numbers for each team and organize by yards per rush for and yards per pass for.

Now, some basic math.

Compare the offense for each team against the defense for yards per rush and yards per pass. Divide the sum for the yards per rush and yards per pass expectancy for each offense.

Now each offense is adjusted for the opponent.

Almost done. Now a pace must be determined. Two things are needed. The plays per game for each team and the pass rate percentage. Figure out how many plays are expected to be a rush and pass for both teams.

Second last step. Multiply the expected rush and pass plays for each team by the opponent adjusted yards per rush and pass numbers. This will produce a yardage total for each team rushing and passing offense.

To finish, take the sum of all yardage expectancy and divide by the league average for yards per point. That will produce the total for the game, in the case of Dallas @ Tampa Bay in this example, the number is 52.75.

The actual total opened at 52. Not too bad.

There are MANY downsides to be aware of with this method. Obviously, injuries and weather (wind) are not accounted for. Yards per play and pace can vary drastically during the season too which brings the use of averages into question. It is far from perfect.

However, there are upsides too. As illustrated, it is simple to calculate and anyone can do it. Almost anyone can expand on this further too. For example, pass rates increase when trailing. Inclusion of medians. A better yards per point number. Lots of ways to go from here.

Hopefully this helps some folks and gives few things to think about or build upon ahead of the upcoming season. Enjoy your Wednesday. 🍻