Thread by @adamchernoff

Ok, a thread to wrap my thoughts on "Reverse Line Movement" so I never have to speak of it again here or on the podcast and can get back to paying attention to the games and betting markets...👇

Reverse line movement requires a bettor to follow a consensus report (more on these in a minute) to find games where the odds move in favour of a team receiving a low number of bets. This is perceived as a "sharp" side as books (in theory) have no reason to move the line.

The main issue is that as a bettor you must wait for the odds to move before identifying the reverse line movement. If the line has already moved you are putting yourself in a disadvantageous spot by betting at a worse number than those who took the original position.

Does this mean that betting after any line move is a bad idea? Absolutely not. Limits, handicapping, pricing, modelling and other factors will when a wager can be placed. But following reverse line movement ensures that you will ALWAYS take the worst of the number.

With the primary issue out of the way, I think it is useful to zero in on a number of fundamental issues. The biggest "trigger" is the consensus percentage. For the most part, these numbers are fabricated or misrepresented from the bookmakers that dictate markets. But for the...

sake of this, assume that all of the numbers shown on these reports are 100% accurate. As someone viewing the report, you are left in the dark on many things.

What is the handle on the game?
What is the liability on non straight bets?
Which accounts are playing which game?

The idea of "reverse line movement" stems from fading the public because bookmakers and sharps win more often than not. If the percentages are correct, but the total handle and liability are not explicitly listed, how can you value one differential vs another? A 75%/25% split...

of money wagered on a $50,000 handle game impacts a bookmaker equally to a 53%/47% split on a $250,000 handle game. In my bookmaking experience it was not uncommon for to have handle that was 8-10x larger on some games on a Sunday than others. Just look at exchange liquidity...

on a Sunday. The amount of money wagered into certain games is significantly higher than others. If you are just following the percentages after the fact without knowing the handle, how could you be confident you are siding with the bookmaker and the "sharps" at all?

I have yet to see a consensus report that is not fabricated show the liability and handle of straight bets in comparison to parlays, teasers and any secondary wager types. In my experience often times more than 50% of the total handle was from non straight bets. Some US states...

are reporting that number to be significantly higher. If the goal is to side with the bookmaker to match "needs" but you're only doing so on potentially a small portion of the total liability, how can you be confident in the strategy overall without knowing what those numbers?

With reverse line movement comes the idea of siding with the sharps. What makes a sharp? Who are the sharps? Did the person that dumped an account on LAC on Monday morning taking the line from +2 to -1 at low limits a sharp because he moved the line? Were the people that bet..

the game back to LAC from +1 to -2.5 at high limits over the course of 48 hours sharp? There are tells (time stamps, book of origin, numbers crossed, amount of movement, relation to limit bump) that you can pick up on, but how do you know who is who, and what is what? If going...

off reverse line movement, all "sharps" are grouped as the same. If you are on the other side of an arbitrary % point, you are deemed to be on the "sharp side". But just because line moves, or shows resistance, does not mean that there is a sharp side. Was CHI moving from...

-3 to -4 today a "sharp move" or was it based off of injury information? The percentages show in favour of New Orleans, so according to reverse line movement because the line went the other way its a trigger and therefore must be sharp money on CHI - load up! It's just not true..

Furthermore, consensus reports lump everything into one category. For example, on MNF the Lions moved from +6.5 to +3. There are EIGHT buy points in that range. Representing the entire market with one single percentage does not make sense. Without knowing the exact liability at..

every price point, how can you group everything together and paint the bettors in the market into just two categories. The game crosses an enormous range of outcomes, and at each point the handicap and edge changes. Ignoring that is completely foolish. To end this, perhaps the...

most telling point is that nobody knows which "sharps" are on which game. If you do not know which bettors were betting at which price and your goal is to blindly tail those bettors, how can you risk money on the crutch of your reasoning being entirely unknown?! It's insane!

So what can bettors do? Well, without taking this thread another 30 messages, I will do my best to keep it simple. As always:

Establish a process
Generate matchup probability
Convert to odds
Compare to market prices
Determine the best price/time to enter market

How you get there is quite a long journey, but the quickest way to not get there is believing there is always a secret side to every game you can blindly follow to make you money because bookmakers always win. It is foolish, and it is lazy. But don't confuse this with tracking...

the betting market and understanding WHY games move. If you do not have an odds screen, get one. DonBest is extremely expensive for most bettors, but it works well (usually) and tracks bookmakers that other odds comparison websites do not. When you get a screen, align your...

bookmaker columns in categories. I work mine from left to right looking at Pinnacle/Credit shops with higher limits, to offshore facing US books and then Las Vegas. Each of these bookmakers cater to different and specific clientele. Early in the week, money will move right to...

left. Later in the week, money will move from left to right (all based around limits). Start to pay attention to which book moves first, you will begin to notice that there is a very specific flow of money through the market. This is how you can anticipate meaningful moves...

It can easy to begin over reacting to line moves and tempting to bet immediately on them trying to beat the market. Instead of doing this, watch the prices and try to understand why it happened? Was it info? Cross check with Rotoworld. Were the limits bumped? Check with books...

Did another book move earlier? Check the time stamps. Once passed basic steps, you can begin to handicap from different viewpoints. Teams with favourable numbers and on-field analysis in the matchup move early and quick. Recreational narratives bleed slow over 3-4-5 days. This...

Well. hell. I ran out of space for a Twitter thread. Didn't know that was possible. Nevertheless, if you need a free odds screen use SBR. I'll continue the explanation another day or on the podcast. Time for a quick nap then back to NFL write-ups. 🍻