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Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

26 Jun

Here is an announcement from a few days ago: Ivermectin to be investigated as a possible treatment for COVID-19 in Oxford’s PRINCIPLE trial. This large well conducted trial will shed light on this topic. ox.ac.uk/news/2021-06-2…

“With known antiviral properties, ivermectin has been shown to reduce SARS-CoV-2 replication in laboratory studies. Small pilot studies show that early administration with ivermectin can reduce viral load and the duration of symptoms in some patients with mild COVID-19.”

“Even though ivermectin is used routinely in some countries to treat COVID-19, there is little evidence from large-scale randomised controlled trials to demonstrate that it can speed up recovery from the illness or reduce hospital admission.”

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Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

29 May

A hotdog is a sandwich.

@SmickaUP

A unicorn is a horse. H/t @SmickaUP

So good: “radical sandwich anarchy”: A pop tart is a sandwich.

Read 6 tweets

Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

27 May

Want to find an appealing (or irritating) four-letter or five-letter arbitrary word for use as a character name for your game or novel, or as a place name, or as a medicine or product name, or any other use? 1/

Want to tell if there is a difference between similar arbitrary names, whether nice-sounding or off-putting? Want to improve audit studies of possible bias by judges? 2/

Want an empirical test of Phonological Cue Theory, which predicts that word terminal fricatives should be preferred, word terminal stops should be dispreferred, nasals early in word should be preferred, and voiced obstruent in the word terminal position should dispreferred? 3/

Read 8 tweets

Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

19 May

I am seeing a lot of people with zero credibility with respect to the defense of free expression on campus and with zero credibility in opposing faculty losing their positions now very worried about such matters. This is why being principled is so important.

To be clear: I am being critical of hypocrisy. I may spend more time to understand what’s going on at UNC and then offer an opinion. HNJ does not qualify for tenure by most usual metrics. But UNC is also possibly being duplicitous. I personally don’t know enough yet.

@TheFIREorg

Here, as usual, is a statement by @TheFIREorg regarding the HNJ situation that also captures my current view. thefire.org/fire-statement…

Read 5 tweets

Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

2 May

@CDCgov

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC cdc.gov/vaccines/covid… via @CDCgov

95,000,000+ fully vaccinated
9,245 infections (0.01%)
594 COVID-related hospitalizations (0.0006%)
112 COVID-related deaths (0.0001%)

However... 1/

If you calculate the IFR of SARS-CoV-2 among the vaccinated using these (admittedly imperfect) data, you get 112/9,245=1.2%. This would mean IFR is higher than among the unvaccinated. But 45% of breakthrough cases post vaccination are among those ≥60. So maybe not.

But... 2/

The bottom line is that these vaccines for COVID-19 are miraculously effective. So far, only about 1 in a million people who are vaccinated have died from COVID-19. And reports so far show amazing safety, too. Get vaccinated. For yourself. For your family. For your community. 3/

Read 5 tweets

Nicholas A. Christakis

@NAChristakis

27 Apr

@joerogan

I admire @joerogan. His conversational style & his reach are phenomenal. But I think his advice that young people not get vaccinated misses the mark. Young people are at low risk of death no matter what. COVID19 increases their risk by ~30%. Why not avoid this with a safe shot?

Furthermore, young people also need to do their part for benefit of our society. Rich people need to pay more taxes. Healthcare workers take a risk of death. So have essential workers. Many have suffered. It’s not a lot to ask to simply get a vaccine to help restore our society.

Calculations very rough: a 21 yo man has ~0.05% chance of death if infected with SARS-CoV-2. Actuarial risk of death in next year at baseline was 0.1288% (ssa.gov/oact/STATS/tab…). Getting infected increases risk of death (from a low baseline).

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