A good question I received today. Let's assume that "COVID is there to stay" and "the vaccination campaign completed" but "there's still breakthrough cases."

Does it matter whether there's a lot of virus circulating (compared to little)?
In other words, would it still pay to be cautious? (Not talking about lockdowns, of course, but about wearing masks on public transport and similar measures.)
My intuition would be: it matters, because
- fewer cases → fewer hospitalizations (and deaths), even if hospitalization rates are low
- fewer cases → lower risk of variants
- lower viral load → better outcomes after infection

But I'd love to learn more about the topic.
A good point by @mrgrozz and @Nucleics_Inc: one should consider the tradeoff with lowering immunity due to chronic non-exposure to pathogens (COVID and others). More details and nuances in their replies to the thread.
This is a good example of why what’s appropriate in a transition (where a population is half-vaxxed) could be different from what’s appropriate afterwards.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

4 Aug
Note that the vaccinated group here is older. Hence, I imagine, the same viral load even though they’re vaccinated.

That said, as @Molson_Hart pointed out, it brings up questions on the effectiveness of “vaccinated-only-entrance” restrictions.
2/ The referenced tweet. (Note that this doesn’t mean vaccines are ineffective. They’re very effective at preventing severe illness. The question is how much they stop transmission when relied too much upon.)

3/ I meant “the effectiveness of vaccine-only-entrance” towards containing transmission (which is important to protect both the unvaccinated & few unlucky vaccinated, and reduce the likelihood of variants)

It’s prob an effective measure re: reducing hospitalizations and deaths
Read 5 tweets
3 Aug
Common fallacies re: breakthrough COVID cases

1/ Using the vaccinated / unvaccinated ratio in hospitalizations, deaths, etc. without controlling for age (and its influence on mortality)
2/ Using the vaccinated / unvaccinated ratio in deaths *within a hospital*

A sample filtered by severity doesn't contain information other than "very sick people are likely to die"

Better: vax/novax deaths ratio in general population, controlled for age

3/ To clarify the previous point: imagine a boat with 50 vaccinated and 500 unvaccinated; 5 of each are in the ICU, and 2 of each die. Does it mean that the vaccine offers no excess protection, because the ratio "vax deaths / vax in ICU" is the same as novax's?

Of course not.
Read 7 tweets
24 Jul
Want to help with the vaccinations?

Make a FAQ on the risks of COVID vaccines that clearly answers:
- risks & unknowns for a teenager
- …for a 30 yo
- …for ladies planning a pregnancy
- how we know that

without:
- politics
- morals
- pushing benefits
- over-technical language
(Is there any? I couldn't find one.)
Things that many people hesitant about the vaccination DON'T care about:
- how mRNA works
- how safe doctors think it is
- if the average person is better off vaccinating

Things they want to know:
- short- and long-term risks
- how probable for people like them
- how do we know
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
DO VACCINES INCREASE THE RISK OF A MORE CONTAGIOUS VARIANT?

Short answer: they do relatively but not absolutely.

Long answer in the thread below.

1/N
2/ There are indications from previous research that the vaccinated tend to select for strains that resist vaccines (probably) and for more dangerous strains (perhaps).

But, this is in relative terms. What we care about are absolute ones.

quantamagazine.org/how-vaccines-c…
3/ Vaccines help our immune system kill viruses faster. This is important because the less a virus reproduces, the fewer chances it has to mutate.

Probably, this means that the vaccinated are *relatively* more likely to produce dangerous strains but *absolutely* less likely.
Read 20 tweets
18 Jul
One my dearest friends recently got victim of credit card fraud.

Some non-obvious learnings:

1/ The first 8 digits of your card can be derived from who your bank is. Don't get tricked in "giving digits 9 to 12 for control purpose" – it might be all a fraudster needs.
2/ Fraudster can call or send SMS from what looks like your bank's number.

If you receive a suspect call from your bank, ask who's calling (and if they have an employee code), then hang up, google the bank's number, call it yourself, and ask for the person who called.
3/ Fraudsters can know many details of your life, including your bank and account number, mobile phone model, recent purchases, etc.

They might have an accomplice in your town, going through your mail in your trash bin (that's what I suspect happened with my friend).
Read 11 tweets
14 Jul
In a country with say 50% vaccinated, on average, less than 50% of the contacts of a person with COVID are vaccinated (because vaccinations aren’t homogeneous).

One reason why many places are still seeing cases grow despite more and more vaccinations.
Also cases aren’t homogeneous; see this map from September 2020.

(Also, the blue areas dispel the myth that lockdowns cause an increase in deaths - they display areas in which fewer people died compared to previous years). Image
It’s the sum of two considerations:

1) Given 50% vaccination rate (say), a person that gets the virus has a >>50% chance of not being vaccinated.

2) A non-vaccinated person is more likely than average to be part of a non-vaccinated family, to have non-vaccinated friends, etc
Read 4 tweets

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