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Luca Dellanna Profile picture
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24 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Want to help with the vaccinations?

Make a FAQ on the risks of COVID vaccines that clearly answers:
- risks & unknowns for a teenager
- …for a 30 yo
- …for ladies planning a pregnancy
- how we know that

without:
- politics
- morals
- pushing benefits
- over-technical language
(Is there any? I couldn't find one.)
Things that many people hesitant about the vaccination DON'T care about:
- how mRNA works
- how safe doctors think it is
- if the average person is better off vaccinating

Things they want to know:
- short- and long-term risks
- how probable for people like them
- how do we know
There's no-vaxxers and there's I-don't-know-vaxxers.

The former are ideological; the latter are data-driven (but reject claims to authority and generic data that might apply to population segments that are not theirs) and is waiting for clear data that applies to their case.

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More from @DellAnnaLuca

Luca Dellanna Profile picture
23 Jul
DO VACCINES INCREASE THE RISK OF A MORE CONTAGIOUS VARIANT?

Short answer: they do relatively but not absolutely.

Long answer in the thread below.

1/N
2/ There are indications from previous research that the vaccinated tend to select for strains that resist vaccines (probably) and for more dangerous strains (perhaps).

But, this is in relative terms. What we care about are absolute ones.

quantamagazine.org/how-vaccines-c…
3/ Vaccines help our immune system kill viruses faster. This is important because the less a virus reproduces, the fewer chances it has to mutate.

Probably, this means that the vaccinated are *relatively* more likely to produce dangerous strains but *absolutely* less likely.
Read 20 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
18 Jul
One my dearest friends recently got victim of credit card fraud.

Some non-obvious learnings:

1/ The first 8 digits of your card can be derived from who your bank is. Don't get tricked in "giving digits 9 to 12 for control purpose" – it might be all a fraudster needs.
2/ Fraudster can call or send SMS from what looks like your bank's number.

If you receive a suspect call from your bank, ask who's calling (and if they have an employee code), then hang up, google the bank's number, call it yourself, and ask for the person who called.
3/ Fraudsters can know many details of your life, including your bank and account number, mobile phone model, recent purchases, etc.

They might have an accomplice in your town, going through your mail in your trash bin (that's what I suspect happened with my friend).
Read 11 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
14 Jul
In a country with say 50% vaccinated, on average, less than 50% of the contacts of a person with COVID are vaccinated (because vaccinations aren’t homogeneous).

One reason why many places are still seeing cases grow despite more and more vaccinations.
Also cases aren’t homogeneous; see this map from September 2020.

(Also, the blue areas dispel the myth that lockdowns cause an increase in deaths - they display areas in which fewer people died compared to previous years). Image
It’s the sum of two considerations:

1) Given 50% vaccination rate (say), a person that gets the virus has a >>50% chance of not being vaccinated.

2) A non-vaccinated person is more likely than average to be part of a non-vaccinated family, to have non-vaccinated friends, etc
Read 4 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
13 Jul
A VISUAL FRAMEWORK FOR ANTIFRAGILITY

(thread, 1/N)
2/ First, the basics. The antifragile (a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his homonymous book) is what benefits from variation, usage, problems, and feedback.

Example: using our muscles to lift weights makes them stronger.
3/ The antifragile also exhibits robust and fragile behaviors.

(In the picture below, the former diagram represents the fragile and the latter represents the antifragile.)
Read 21 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
7 Jul
Horrific.

Note that they built human-virus labs in the middle of metropolises such as Wuhan and agricultural-virus labs in the middle of monoculture fields. That's everything you need to know about whether you should listen to them regarding risks.

(link via @maartenmeijer)
The previous agricultural-virus lab was built on an island, so that the ocean could provide a cordon of safety in case of a leak.

They decided to move it in the agricultural heartland.

Decisions made around researchers, not around keeping our lives and livelihoods safe.
"The risk assessment didn’t even attempt to quantify the likelihood of malicious or deliberate acts."

"In 2001, anthrax stolen from a federal bioweapons lab killed five people and sickened 17 more."
Read 5 tweets
Luca Dellanna Profile picture
25 Jun
It looks like the school has agency:; but its movements are decided by the fishes, each taking *individual* decisions.

Same for companies: it seems they have agency, but their behavior is caused by individual decisions of their managers, each made on individual incentives.

1/3
There is no such thing as “a company decided”.

Instead, it’s: “some of its managers decided.”

It matters, because GROUP INCENTIVES DON’T AFFECT GROUP BEHAVIOR UNLESS THEY’RE TRANSLATED INTO INDIVIDUAL INCENTIVES.
The same applies to our brain.

We’re tricked into thinking the brain has agency because it acts as one, like a fish school.

But its actions are decided at the level of its components, each sending an output based on individual internal rules.

Causality is always bottom-up.
Read 5 tweets

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