Thread by @DaleJohnsonESPN

New season VAR / refereeing changes thread No. 2:
SOFT FREE-KICKS AND PENALTIES

- What's a "soft" free-kick / penalty
- Ethos behind it
- Influence of Euro 2020
- Examples of so-called "soft" penalties
- Issues with implementation / VAR
- Unlikely to be a smooth ride

The change comes after meetings between PGMOL and clubs, players, managers, coaches and the Football Supporters' Association.

Also included a survey among fans to find out how they envisage games being refereed.

This, along with learnings from Euro 2020, shaped the thinking.

Mike Riley said he wants to "allow Premier League games to flow and that means the refereeing team, both as referee and as VAR, don't intervene for the trivial offences.

"Let's create a free-flowing game, where the threshold is slightly higher than it was last season."

Worth mentioning that despite the raft of soft penalties last season, there were fewer penalties in the Premier League than in any other competition.

Other leagues also suffered a big rise (similar to Serie A in 2019-20), which brought a lot of criticism in those competitions.

While the 125 penalties in the Premier League was a record, a 37.5% increase on the previous season was not as bad some leagues.

La Liga -5%
Serie A -20%
Bundesliga +50%
Ligue 1 +100%
UCL +12%

Pens in France doubled.
(Serie A had a 53% increase in 2019-20).

VAR has to have an impact on referees, and how they view decisions, and therefore how players act.

There is little doubt players have been using contact to try and "win" a foul or penalty.

And this is where the changes come.

But, unlike the changes to offside which are factual based upon the positioning of the lines, making modifications to a subjective area is always going to have its issues.

Getting a level of consistency across 22 referees (and 23 VARs) isn't going to be straightforward.

The principles are:
- the referee should look for contact and establish clear contact
- then ask if that contact has a consequence
- and has the attacker used contact to try and win a foul / penalty.

It's not sufficient to say 'yes there's contact.'

But what does this mean?

In short, it means the level of contact from the defender should cause the attacking player to go down in the manner that he has.

So an attacker throwing himself to the ground because of minimal contact should no longer be a penalty.

Obviously, there will be grey areas.

Before this season, referees were told to look for an attacker initiating the contact to win a foul or a penalty, by placing their leg into a position which deliberately draws a foul.

Now, refs must also consider if contact is enough to cause a foul or penalty.

Mike Riley: "Contact on its own is only part of what the referee should look for; consider consequence and the motivation of the player as well."

Next, a few examples of the kind of tackle which may no longer be penalised, as well as others which are on the borderline.

Example 1.
Leander Dendoncker on Riyad Mahrez (2019-20)

The contact from Dendoncker on Mahrez's boot isn't deemed enough to produce the exaggerated fall. Similar to Sterling vs. Scotland.
(A penalty actually given by the VAR)

Example 2.
Richarlison on Dani Ceballos

Penalty awarded to Arsenal, confirmed by the VAR (though ruled out for a marginal offside).

No longer a penalty as the slight contact by Richarlison should not cause Ceballos to go down in this way.

61 seconds

Example 3.
Ezri Konsa on Ainsley Maitland-Niles

Minimal contact on the top of the boot of Maitland-Niles, who used that to win the penalty. The contact did not equal the reaction from the player.

Example 4.
Joe Willock on Marcus Rashford

Willock just catches the toe of Rashford, with minimal contact. The fall is exaggerated by Rashford.

1min 40secs

Example 5.
Andrew Robertson on Danny Welbeck

Another decision given by the VAR. Minimal boot-to-boot contact from Robertson, and Welbeck went to ground after the fact, seemingly looking for the decision.

Mike Riley was eager to say players shouldn't need to go down to win a penalty, citing the mistake not to give Phil Foden a penalty when he stayed on his feet.

But just how this will work when not all contact is a penalty, we'll have to see.

But we are going to have borderline cases.

Example 1
Douglas Luiz on Paul Pogba

Luiz clips Pogba, causing Pogba to trip over his own feet. The consequence of Luiz's actions was for Pogba to trip. Therefore, this kind of decision may stand.

73 seconds

Example 2
David Luiz on Willian Jose

Remembering intent is no longer in the Laws, the only reason Willian Jose goes down is due to the contact by Luiz. Even though this is minimal, it causes the attacker to fall.

42 secs

It's fair to say those two examples should show why this is going to be tough to get right.

Many will feel both Pogba and Luiz shouldn't be penalties, but there is consequence to the actions of the defender (regardless of intent) and neither attacker goes down theatrically.

If this can work like at the Euros, it should lead to fewer penalties, free-kicks and cards.

Fouls
2016: 1,290
2020: 1,113

Yellows
2016: 205
2020: 152

Penalties and red cards went up at Euro 2020, but it's not a direct comparison as Euro 2016 had no VAR.

Along with referees allowing the game to flow, a lot will rest with the VARs with soft penalties.

Riley wants a higher threshold, but to cut out these soft penalties you need a lower threshold.

There's a danger it will feel as though we've gone backwards instead of forwards.

At Euro 2020, the VAR didn't advise a review ONCE when the referee had given a penalty or red card.

So the decisions to award penalties to France (v Portugal), Russia (v Denmark) and England (v Denmark) all stood.

The referees in those games simply didn't get another game.

While the threshold at Euro 2020 was very high, there was only around 1 key match-changing incident per game.

In the Prem there's 3-per-game, indicating the different intensity in domestic football vs. tournament football.

It also shows how the demands on VAR are much higher.

Mike Riley: "The Euros were really good in a lot of respects. There was a greater acceptance about referees not intervening for small contact, and that allowed the game to flow.

"We'll take the positives from the Euros. But it's not going to be the same experience."

With the heightened emotions attached to every Premier League game, and the different way the media reports such incidents, I can't imagine fans are going to accept such a high threshold.

If a referee never has a decision changed in the Premier League, fans won't buy it.

The 22 Premier League referees are of differing levels of ability and experience.

At Euro 2020, every referee is of the very top level, highly experienced and the best Europe has to offer. It also had twice as many VARs on each game.

No domestic league can match this.

Do we want fewer cheap free-kicks and penalties? Definitely.

Is that difficult to achieve with consistency? Yes.

Will fans of one club always feel aggrieved? Without any doubt.

And we won't truly know where the bar sits until the season starts.

One more pre-season VAR thread tomorrow, which won't be as involved as this one, on handball changes.

You can find the thread on VAR offside here:

https://twitter.com/DaleJohnsonESPN/status/1424680910696427523?s=20

Couple of bonus tweets, I forgot to mention the use of slow motion replays.

The protocol on pitchside reviews is for the referee to be shown:
1. Normal speed
2. Slow motion of point of impact
3. Normal speed to confirm decision

What comes before this is often more important.

There's been an over-reliance by the VAR on slow motion replay, which can paint a misleading picture.

The VAR is largely in control of what the referee is shown, so if that's misleading slow images it can lead to bad decisions.

It's something the VAR has to improve on.

Two good examples.

1. Fabien Balbuena red card vs. Chelsea
By slowing down the replay it suggests Balbuena's challenge is far worse than it was.

Chris Kavanagh shown slow motion and then real time, but decision appears shown initially on slow motion.

2. Tomas Soucek red card vs. Fulham

VAR Lee Mason repeatedly showed Mike Dean the slow motion of the alleged elbow for 80 SECONDS. It was almost as though the ref had to be convinced of this decision, which should never have made it to a review.