Thread by @billroggio

1) It has been fun watching those who are complicit in Afghanistan's failure come out of the woodwork to gab. Doug Lute, who was President Obama's adviser on AfPak, shows just how little he knows about Afghanistan in the PBS Newshour interview.
pbs.org/newshour/show/…

2) Lute begins to talk about the Taliban offensive, says "In some of these remote rural areas, largely still rural areas where the Taliban is gaining military — military effectiveness," the host rightly cuts him off, and notes the fighting is in the cities, not just rural areas.

3) Lute then doubles down on his ignorance with this gem: "The other provincial capitols and the handful that have fallen are still relatively small and relatively remote and in Pashtun-dominated areas."
Let's go down the list of cities.

4) - Taloqan is the capital of Takhar, which is dominated by Tajiks and Uzbeks
- Aybak is the capital of Samangan which is dominated by Tajiks and Uzbeks
- Kunduz is a mish-mash, Pashtuns are under 1/3 of population

5) - Pashtuns are dominant in Nimruz (just over 1/2), while Zaranj City is primarily Baluch
- Sar-i-Pul is much like Kunduz, Uzbeks are the largest ethnic group there.
- Shibirghan is the capital of Jawzjan, where Uzbeks and Turkmen are the largest groups.

6) So the only case where Lute was even close was Nimroz / Zaranj, and even there he missed the mark.

7) Also note how Lute moves the goalposts. The U.S. military talking point used to be "The Taliban doesn't control any cities / provincial capitals."

Now, according to Lute, it is "The Taliban only controls small, insignificant provincial capitals that are Pashtun dominated."

8) Do you want to understand how Afghanistan became a $#!t$#!0w? "Experts" like Doug Lute were involved.