The infrastructure bill's bad crypto regulations risks turning cryptos into banks. Not good!

Below are the 10 sectors of the S&P 500, Highlighted are financials (orange) and banks (blue). Since LTCM in 1998, they have been last in returns!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term…

1/4
Same chart as above since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

Again financials and banks are the worst possible investments. But now energy (green), after its epic collapse the last few years, joins the bottom of the return list.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial…

2/4
Finally, since the Wells Fargo scandal in 2016, banks, financials and energy again are the worst possible investments.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wells_Far…

Wells surviving could be bad for banks. Criminal activity on this scale needed to be punished. It really was not.

3/4
This is crypto's future should regulation turn them into banks. Entities that crush world economies, employ thousands to steal from millions, and constantly disappoint investors with horrible returns.

Why willingly do this to new promising technologies?

4/4

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More from @biancoresearch

7 Aug
The big office in a city center is a broken model. The pushback to return is palpable.

Instead of bribing people in a desperate attempt to return to 2019, time to think forward about what the future of the office is and what purpose it still serves.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The future of work? Look at how the gaming industry has evolved. That community has managed to develop relationships, improve productivity, train each other, and reward each other without ever sitting in the same room.

This could serve as a roadmap for the larger workforce.
What is most office jobs in 2021? You sit in front of a computer manipulating things on a screen. This describes about 30% of jobs, and virtually every job in financial services.

This is what gamers do, and they are more advanced at “remote work” than the typical company.
Read 4 tweets
6 Aug
I cannot believe Fed Gov Waller said this about the current international payment system:

"You can do wire transfer with Western Union right now very cheaply ... so we already have some relatively cheap international payments remittances"

1/4

How broken is the payment system?

Non-physical transfer of money originated in 1871 with Western Union.

Early transfer (1873), for $300.

Notice the fee was $9.34 or ~ 3%.

150 yrs ago WU had to put coins in a saddlebag and deliver it on a horse. More expensive today.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
The latest from Japan.

The Olympics have 8 more days and the spike in cases continues.
@JackFarley96 @acrossthespread

1/5
And speaking of the Olympics ... is this as important as the medal count?

2/5
Japan is under a "state of emergency" and as Apple mobility shows, they are severely restricting their movements (the Olympics started July 23).

(Apple aggregates location data services for various areas)

3/5
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul
I was on CNBC earlier today talking about plunging bond yields.

1/6

I'm in the camp that says inflation is not transitory. I still believe this is correct.

But, as the bottom panel suggests, this is not what the markets are worried about. Note that yields (orange) and the relative performance of reopening stocks (green) are nearly the same

2/6
So, the market is focused on growth and not inflation. On this front, it is not good. The reopening stocks are having their worst stretch since the Pfizer vaccine announcement last November.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
12 Jun
From the story ...

"About a third of workers in the U.S. hold jobs that economists say could be done remotely."
---
I agree and understanding the ramifications of this change is going to redefine the economy over the next several years.

1/6

news.yahoo.com/little-more-re…
The tip of this iceberg is the enormous impact it will have on traffic. no mre rush hour?

Then redefining the meaning of office is next. What is its purpose? Why do we have them?

2/6
The jobs that can be done at home, which again are one-third of the workforce, a nothing but glorified video games. My job is this and most of your jobs are as well.

We sit at computer screens and manipulate things. Essentially we are playing a video game.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
4 Jun
In the meantime, see this FT article

on.ft.com/2SbAzkf

The pandemic has caused spending patterns have changed more than anytime in history.

1/4
So the inflation measures now overweight stuff we don't buy as much, like subway passes, restaurants and business attire, which are falling in price. and underweight things we spend a lot more on, like groceries, bicycles, and used cars, which are rising in price.

2/4
As noted in the FT, Harvard professor Alberto Cavallo took a stab at this and found that US inflation may have been underestimated by 5.5% over the course of 2020.

To repeat, inflation last year was near 7% according to his studies. And it is probably higher this year.

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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