I’ve seen a lot of tweets and DM’s over the past 16 hours asking for my 2021 price targets — I have no clue what this stock will do in the short term although I think $250 in the next 6 months is possible.
I care more about the next 6 quarters so here’s my take…
I care more about the next 6 quarters so here’s my take…
https://twitter.com/jonahlupton/status/1425190264302411776
I've been saying for a while that I thought $UPST would do $700M+ in 2021 and $1.2B+ in 2022 but I'm raising those estimates.
Now I think $UPST will do $800M+ in 2021 and $1.4B+ in 2022
I would expect EBITDA margins to continue increasing over the next 6 quarters.
Now I think $UPST will do $800M+ in 2021 and $1.4B+ in 2022
I would expect EBITDA margins to continue increasing over the next 6 quarters.
Adjusted EBITDA margins were 31% in 2021 Q2, it’s possible they get to 40% by end of 2022
If we use 40% adjusted EBITDA margins and $1.4B in revenues we get $560M of adjusted EBITDA for 2022.
If we use 40% adjusted EBITDA margins and $1.4B in revenues we get $560M of adjusted EBITDA for 2022.
Considering my estimated 75% revenue growth rate in 2022 (still conservative), gross margins, operating margins, profitability, optionality, TAM, etc it's very fair to put a 65x EBITDA multiple on this getting us to $36.4B / 94.9M shares (fully diluted) = $384 year end 2022 PT
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