Inflation as measured by CPI increased 0.5% month-over-month in July—at expectations and below June’s rate of 0.9%. The deceleration largely reflected a lessening of price pressures from the motor vehicle sector. 1/
Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 0.3% month-over-month—below expectations and well below June’s rate of 0.9%. 2/
Year-over-year, headline inflation rose by 5.4% while core inflation rose by 4.3%. While both measures had been accelerating in recent months, year-over-year growth did not accelerate for either measure this month. 3/
Used cars, new cars, auto parts, and car rentals together made up about 27 percent of core month-over-month inflation, down from about 54 percent on average in April, May, and June. 4/
Prices of pandemic-affected services rose again this month and contributed 9 basis points to the core inflation increase in July, relative to 11 basis points in June. The index of pandemic-affected services is now above its pre-pandemic level. 5/
Month-over-month growth in shelter costs ticked down in July, reflecting slower growth in lodging away from home (e.g. hotels). Price growth in rent of primary residence and owners’ equivalent rent held steady at the rate they’ve been in recent months. 6/
One month does not make a trend (monthly inflation slowed in May before rebounding in June), and we know supply constraints persist in various sectors. However, July’s deceleration is encouraging. 7/
We know that the recovery from the pandemic will not be linear. The Council of Economic Advisers will continue to monitor the data as they come in. /end

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More from @WhiteHouseCEA

29 Jul
Today’s report shows that growth in the U.S. economy functionally held steady for the second quarter in a row at a strong pace. The United States economy grew at 6.5 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2021. 1/
The level of real GDP is finally above its pre-pandemic level as the economy has experienced its fastest growth in the first half of the year since 1984. 2/
As consumers increasingly bought services, consumption of services contributed 5.1 percentage points to GDP. This is the most service consumption has ever contributed to GDP, except for the pandemic bounce back in 2020Q3. 3/
Read 14 tweets
13 Jul
Inflation as measured by CPI increased at a 5.4% rate year-over-year last month and 0.9% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 4.5% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month. A large part of the increase is due to cars and pandemic-affected services. 1/ Image
Cars once again accounted for a large share of the increase. Used cars, new cars, auto parts, and car rentals together made up about 60 percent of core month-over-month inflation 2/ Image
Prices of pandemic-affected services rose again this month and contributed 11 basis points to the core inflation increase in June. 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
6 Jul
New from CEA: we examine previous periods of heightened inflation and see what they can teach us about inflation in 2021. 1/
whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Since World War II, there have been six periods in which inflation—as measured by CPI—was 5 percent or higher: 1946–48, 1950–51, 1969–71, 1973–82, and 2008. 2/
The three most recent inflationary episodes were largely a function of oil shocks; in contrast, pandemic price dynamics have not been primarily driven by oil supply, though we continue to closely monitor ongoing energy price behavior. 3/
Read 17 tweets
2 Jul
Today’s jobs report showed the economy added 850,000 jobs in June, for an average gain of 567,000 over the last three months. This is the fastest monthly job growth since August of last summer. 1/
It is important to pay attention to this three-month moving average to understand the trend, rather than focusing on the data in a single month since monthly numbers can be volatile. 2/ whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Out economy still has not fully recovered as employment remains about 6.8 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level. 3/
Read 24 tweets
1 Jul
To promote a robust economic recovery, the Federal government has been helping needy families through a combination of Federal income support programs, including economic impact payments (stimulus checks) and supplemental unemployment insurance benefits. 1/
A new CEA blog shows that after the extra Federal aid was issued, there were marked improvements in food security among households that reported experiencing financial hardship since COVID-19 began and that were reliant on such funds to meet their recent spending needs. 2/
Although hunger is now on the rise as Federal relief has subsided, additional aid is imminent through the expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which policymakers expect will once again help to reduce food insecurity. 3/
Read 9 tweets
29 Jun
Job growth volatility has increased during the pandemic and reflects both real volatility—economic reverberations of the pandemic shock—as well as heightened measurement error due to the challenge of collecting statistical data amidst a pandemic. 1/
These considerations warn against placing too much weight on any single data point in assessing the current state of the economy, even as the worst of pandemic in the U.S. fades away. 2/
While this blog focuses specifically on the jobs numbers, increased volatility is not specific to the employment report. In general, economic data during the pandemic and the current recovery have been volatile and challenging to forecast. 3/
Read 31 tweets

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