To promote a robust economic recovery, the Federal government has been helping needy families through a combination of Federal income support programs, including economic impact payments (stimulus checks) and supplemental unemployment insurance benefits. 1/
A new CEA blog shows that after the extra Federal aid was issued, there were marked improvements in food security among households that reported experiencing financial hardship since COVID-19 began and that were reliant on such funds to meet their recent spending needs. 2/
Although hunger is now on the rise as Federal relief has subsided, additional aid is imminent through the expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which policymakers expect will once again help to reduce food insecurity. 3/
For households that experienced a loss of employment income since March 2020 and relied on stimulus checks in the past week to meet their spending needs, food insufficiency rates dropped from 27 percent in mid-December 2020 to 18 percent in mid-January 2020. 4/
For households that experienced a loss of employment income since COVID-19 began and relied on unemployment insurance benefits in the past week to meet their spending needs, food insufficiency rates dropped from 26 percent in mid-December 2020 to 19 percent in mid-January 2020.5/
The latest Household Pulse Survey data from the May 26 to June 7, 2021 period indicate that a significant share of the U.S. population is still currently not eating enough. 6/
Among households with children, over 1 in 10 households (13 percent) and over 2 in 10 households with annual incomes below $50K (23 percent) said that they sometimes or often did not have enough food to eat in the household over the past week. 7/
While there have been substantial gains in America’s fight against the pandemic-induced hunger crisis, more is required to further reduce food deprivation as the U.S. economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic shock, particularly among lower-income households with children. 8/
Today’s jobs report showed the economy added 850,000 jobs in June, for an average gain of 567,000 over the last three months. This is the fastest monthly job growth since August of last summer. 1/
It is important to pay attention to this three-month moving average to understand the trend, rather than focusing on the data in a single month since monthly numbers can be volatile. 2/ whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
Out economy still has not fully recovered as employment remains about 6.8 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level. 3/
Job growth volatility has increased during the pandemic and reflects both real volatility—economic reverberations of the pandemic shock—as well as heightened measurement error due to the challenge of collecting statistical data amidst a pandemic. 1/
These considerations warn against placing too much weight on any single data point in assessing the current state of the economy, even as the worst of pandemic in the U.S. fades away. 2/
While this blog focuses specifically on the jobs numbers, increased volatility is not specific to the employment report. In general, economic data during the pandemic and the current recovery have been volatile and challenging to forecast. 3/
This Saturday, the nation recognizes Juneteenth, which marks the day a Major General of the Union Army arrived in Galveston, Texas to enforce the Emancipation Proclamation, and free the last enslaved Black people in Texas from bondage. 1/
The day has evolved into a celebration of emancipation, and while the country acknowledges the progress that has been made, it is imperative to not lose sight of the fact that we still have much work to do to address the vestiges of slavery and historic discrimination 2/
Indeed, policies and practices exist today that are seemingly non-discriminatory on their face but still negatively affect many families of color, especially Black families. Many of these policies and practices have long-term impacts that must be addressed. 3/
The disruptions in U.S. supply chains are serious and widespread—but are likely to be transitory. They reflect an economy that is pivoting from recession to growth faster than many businesses expected. New CEA blog post here: whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/… 1/
A telltale sign of shortages & supply-chain issues: Inventory-to-sales ratios are at record lows across the economy. These ratios measure how many days of current sales that businesses and retailers could support out of existing inventories. 2/
Low inventories have caused cascading issues in industrial supply chains. In the latest Census Small Business Pulse survey (May 31-June 6), 36% of small businesses reported delays with domestic suppliers, concentrated in manufacturing, construction, and trade. 3/
Inflation as measured by CPI increased at a 5.0% rate year-over-year last month and 0.6% month-over-month. Core inflation—without food/energy—rose 3.8% year-over-year and 0.7% month-over-month. The year-over-year numbers were impacted by base effects from last spring. 1/
The month-over-month inflation was a slight deceleration from the April inflation numbers, but slightly above expectations. 2/
Much of the annual inflation was due to base effects, reflecting the depressed prices from last spring. Controlling for base effects by smoothing across the 15 months since February 2020, the rate of CPI inflation was 3%. 3/
Personal income fell by 13% in April, a smaller fall than market expectations, as fewer economic impact payments went out than in March (which saw a large increase in personal income) 1/
Aggregate compensation (reflecting both number of employees and wages/benefits paid) again grew at 0.9 percent month-over-month, a strong pace. It rose further above its pre-pandemic high from last February. 2/
Nominal spending on goods decreased slightly, driven by nondurable goods, while spending on services continued to increase. The increased spending on services and decreased spending on goods likely reflects a reopening economy. 3/