Thread by @althecat

Sorry I missed this before jumping to @Amnesty's defence, which doesn't mean I am completely resiling from it as its a bit complicated.

First though @jeffpropulsion's piece is amazing, and says what needs to be said. 50 Claps. Magnificent.

link.medium.com/9Ekbx3hwDib

Jeff Pearce knows this subject. Knows Ethiopia. Knows the TPLF far better than I ever will. His post is impassioned and clear, and echoes many of the things I am thinking but do not have the confidence to say.

Particularly about the information war.

While it is of course easy to conclude from this that @Amnesty knows they have been hoodwinked, and have proceeded to lie because they are being paid.

@JeffPropulsion isn't saying this as far as I can tell. And it may well not be the case.

A while ago I was contacted by someone in Amhara who explained the 1 in 5 informer problem in Tigray. And raised the issue of possible acutely inaccurate witness testimony being collected by journalists in the field.

In another recent and excellent post @JeffPropulsion addressed the rule of fixers and the environment in which reporters have been operating in Tigray in recent months. jeffpearce.medium.com/ethiopia-the-p…

This also struck a chord. I am not an international correspondent. More an editor. I have been on a few overseas assignments though. And even in relatively benign places the experience of being parachuted in to address issues in places you have no experience is v. difficult.

Jeff cites this report as containing evidence that what we have been told about Axum/Aksum is possibly pure nonsense. And it is worth examining this article, posted just 25 days into the war, for itself. reuters.com/article/us-eth…

The reporter pulls together information from various sources and trying to create a picture of something that he/she/the team can't verify. 10 months on this remains the case. I have been following this now since April fairly closely, and I still have no idea what is going on.

When I arrived on the scene in April I took a look at reporting of the war. The @AP team, and one reporter in particular, stood out in the early period of the war, Cara Anna.

I found a database of her material at the Seattle Times and had a closer look. seattletimes.com/author/cara-an…

Today she is reporting that the OLA leader has announced an alliance with the TPLF. seattletimes.com/nation-world/w…

I wanted to look closely at the outbreak of the war and found it here. And the reason I wanted to look closely at it as I was horrified by the reports that were coming out on AP, in the FT and other outlets about sexual violence.

A large part of me wanted to run away at that point. I dug in and started to look at the lead up to the war and eventually found something I could hold on to. Evidence (to my mind) of U.S. responsibility/culpability in the tragedy of Tigray.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1380475710846988288?s=20

Up till then I had been focussed on the #GERD, an enormously positive story, which I wanted to report on. #ItsMyDam facing down crazy Egyptian threats of war from what is possibly one of the most amazing nation building development projects in modern history.

But the "official" story of the Axum massacre made no sense in the face of what I had been seeing online, and so in my own way I found a new justification to enable me to stay with Ethiopia.

The point of all this is not to be self-regarding, but to point out how impactful this specific story is in relation to the narrative, and how much it affected the entire story of this war.

For their own reasons the Govts. of Ethiopia and Eritrea chose to be very guarded about their views of what happened at Axum beyond denying their involvement, perhaps because they feared that they would not be believed.

In the Tigray war ill-equipped reporters and perhaps also Amnesty investigators found themselves faced with a far more sophisticated information warfare opponent than they had ever experienced before.

In the face of a silent Govt. and witnesses telling them stories which were compelling and horrifying an ENDF/Amhara militias atrocity, and "brave people's defender" narrative grew wings and the rest is history.

You cannot effectively investigate war crimes during wars. And particularly not in a war in which there are combatants which long and deep experience in psychological warfare, false flag provocation, population surveillance and control + a record of ruthless violence.

But I knew none of that back in April. Much of this is just dawning on me now. And has been confirmed in watching the events since July 16th when the TPLF resumed its offensive, against civilians outside of Tigray in Afar and Amhara.

I think it is possible to believe that Amnesty believe their reports, that their investigators believed the witnesses, and that they are now terrified that an ENDF offensive into Tigray will result in similar things happening again.

We will not know the truth until this is over and a much higher level of inquiry will be needed to get to the truth than that conducted thus far by Amnesty.

As Ethiopia is not a signatory to the Rome Statute it may not be possible for the ICC to investigate war crimes in Ethiopia. Interestingly I see that Eritrea has signed but not ratified.

coalitionfortheicc.org/country/ethiop…
coalitionfortheicc.org/country/eritrea

In the circumstances I would fully understand why the Ethiopian Govt. might trust the ICC to deal with this, but perhaps some other form of traditional dispute resolution and inquiry process could be employed once this war is over and the dust has settled.

Finally FWIW, I think a voluntary GoE statement concerning the upcoming conflict which reassures the world that the ENDF will do its best to protect civilians might be the best way to respond to the @amnesty report.

Unfortunately the level of entrenchment and investment in narratives around this war by both diplomatic players, NGOs, and the media will not quickly be overcome.

/ENDS

Correction: “why the Ethiopian govt. might << NOT >> trust”