Thread by @althecat

It is time for a change of subject, a reset in the Tigray war narrative, which has been manufactured from day one.

It is apparent this will not come via the Media nor the international community who have decided to make their bed with the TPLF.

So we will have to do this ourselves. And I have a plan.

But I will not be able to do this alone and am calling on the Ethiopian twitter community, especially those of you who are journalists to assist.

The plan is simple.

We can execute it entirely on twitter collectively.

And it based on unassailable evidence.

In recent days it has become apparent that at its heart the entire Tigray conflict is, at its heart, an information war. Albeit one with truly horrific real world consequences. The TPLF are gifted liars par excellence. And until recently the GoE has been fighting this poorly.

But it is now apparent that the GoE approach has changed. Following the filling of the #GERD on July 19th thousands of Ethiopians, in Ethiopia and diaspora have joined this battle.

Recently #CyberArmyOfEthiopia was launched.

But the challenge is how to present the truth about the TPLF in a way that cannot be disregarded by the media using a "both sides" narrative.

As long as the United States Government maintains its current position, which appears to be a schizophrenic combination of disinterest at times and active hostility towards the GoE. The media will not move their position.

"... We (U.S.) have made it very clear to TPLF leadership a cease fire and political negotiations are the only way to end this conflict. We’ve reminded them the mistrust and animosity that many Ethiopians feel toward the TPLF is rooted in their actions during their 27 year rule."

Samatha Power made these remarks in her August 4th press conference in Addis Ababa, the day of the #AfarMassacre. [Src:usaid.gov/news-informati…]

And its my growing understanding of what this really means, garnered in conversations with a number of subject matter experts which have led me to the solution which I now propose.

While all Ethiopians know who the TPLF are, the world does not. And this includes many (perhaps most) of the young journalists who are working on African news desks and their editors. The media used to have institutional memory but most of that has now gone.

And the TPLF has always lived in the shadows.

Subject area professionals who know the TPLF speak in one voice about the TPLF's characteristics. The TPLF are masters of manipulation, of media, facts, diplomats, academics and Governments. And they are completely ruthless.

The on the ground Tigray/Welkaite Stasi like 1 in 5 informer networks used to control populations through fear, and more recently demand children be given up to serve as cannon fodder in their incursions are the tip of the iceberg of their intimidation capacity.

The TPLF can and does reach deep into the Tigray diaspora community around the world. And they also have deep links into the world of diplomacy and politics, particularly in the US and EU.

.. and UK. The US and UK trained and armed them for three decades to keep stability in the strategically important #HornOfAfrica. They know the UK, US, EU & EU nation state's dirty secrets, and the keepers of the secrets. And the policy makers.

When it comes to their U.S. networks, @Stesfa is the expert on their networks which explains why the @Facebook funded Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab (@DFRLab atlanticcouncil.org/programs/digit…) went after him.

https://twitter.com/stesfa/status/1425456713503752197?s=20

@stesfa @Facebook @DFRLab My understanding (not via @Stesfa) is that this report was produced by a @DFRLab person working in South Africa. medium.com/dfrlab/eritrea…

@Stesfa's report can be found here >> eritreacompass.com/disinformation… It contains a detailed analysis of the TPLF's multi-layered misinformation, lobbying and influence operation which lies behind this war.

The TPLF's intimidation operations extend way beyond this though and have been in place for a very long time. They are involved in political donations, and intimidation of academics and foreign policy analysts and think tanks.

And when it comes to ground operations in the Horn of Africa, as Ethiopians (but not westerners) are well aware they are also experienced in all manner of manipulation, proxy war support, assassination's, false flag operations, blackmail etc. Everything evil you can imagine.

All of which makes the US, EU, UK and EU nation state's silence on recent events all the more mysterious. Why?

There are several theories as to what is going on with this.

1. Conspiracy - I.E. the #C2FC ideas advanced by @GeopolPress which suggest that the West wants the TPLF to break up Ethiopia, even though it is against their stated strategic interests, because they want chaos.

While I understand the currency of this line of thought I am not a fan as it fails the Occam's razor test. Yonas Biru writing in @ZBorkena provides a thorough rebuttal of these ideas here .

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1424698316365996034?s=20

2. Media-led political hand wringing - this explanation is based on the idea that politicians are fickle, easily manipulable, and that in this environment the combination of horrific stories of sexual violence and famine has made Ethiopia politically poisonous.

I have some sympathy for this idea and think it is definitely contributing to the dynamics which have made this happen.

3. CIA gone rogue - Basically the Basma/#C2FC idea but without political sanction, possibly engineered by and on behalf of corporate covert interests who have the same plan, but delivered via an operation which is not sanctioned by the State Dept.

Possible, given that it has happened before, but in my view very unlikely.

4. Inattentive Washington, supplicant EU - which suggests that there is chaos in Washington D.C. policy circles, with a new Govt. taking over with more impt. priorities, leaving middle management in acting senior positions are sticking with what they know, i.e. TPLF.

The second leg to this theory proposes that the EU and UK - desperate to re-establish their close relationship with the U.S. (which is embarking on a massive new technology revolution in cyber and climate change) - are taking their lead from a @StateDept which has lost the plot.

And this final theory is my favoured explanation. The U.S. has taken over a mess from Trump, of which the #GERD dispute is a minor part. Afghanistan is turning into a Vietnam like disaster. @JoeBiden's priorities are the JCPOA with Iran, China and Russia.

And Egypt is a significant factor in relation to two of these four areas. Egypt, while an authoritarian dictatorship, has been helpful both in Middle East peace efforts (esp. in Sudan) and is important in relation to securing Arab acceptance of JCPOA 2.0.

Meanwhile as Ethiopians know all too well, securing the Abraham Accords came at the cost of throwing long time ally Ethiopia and the #GERD under the bus. Not that this probably figures into their reasoning - but it will be something that they would rather not think about.

But more importantly the reason I favour the "Inattentive Washington" thesis on all this is that it is the easiest to address. As it means that the current efforts to get their attention, and change their policy are the right ones, and there is a clear target.

I.E. The Africa Bureau in the State Department which does not currently have an Assistant Secretary of State in place and is being run by acting staff, who would make, when push comes to shove, a convenient scapegoat for the current mess.

Which brings me back to the cunning plan, which I will outline in detail in a second thread which I will post this evening.

The core problem we face here is the US, EU and UK not taking responsibility for the TPLF, which are in large part their creation, and which we know they know the true nature of, however much they are currently whitewashing them.

The big-lie of the Tigray war is this, who the TPLF really are. This lie has been created by the TPLF, delivered with extraordinary effectiveness through the media, and is maintained now through US, EU and UK silence.

But fortunately there is a compendious, indelible public available and incontrovertible set of evidence which shows in some detail that the policy makes in Washington D.C., London and Brussels are lying about their former allies.

And for this we can thank Julian Assange and @wikileaks.

/ENDS

@threadreaderapp unroll

Correction: The day before the Galicoma Medical Center atrocity, which occurred on August 5th according to Ethiopia HRC.