Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on Schools:
The problem with the reporting around the PHE/LSHTM school data is that it's being used to say that schools aren't a problem and don't need mitigations.

e.g.
bmj.com/content/374/bm…
1/8

But it's based on comparing rates in June 2021 vs Nov 2020. ONS infection survey agrees that rates in school kids were lower in June 2021 (<1%) compared to Nov 2020 (~2%). So what's wrong with the headlines?

They wrongly imply that we don't need to make schools safer. 2/8

Firstly, rates were accelerating from June and by July 2021, rates were over 3% in ONS in school age kids - matching the peak last December. This survey did not include these periods. 3/8

Rates in school kids were rising from May 2021 from a v low base compared to Nov where rates had been high in school kids since September.

We are going into next term at very high rates (higher than Nov 2020) and not the low rates in April/May 2021. 4/8

Of course rates in school age kids depend on community rates. When there's little Covid around, schools are pretty ok. But whenever covid is surging & schools are open, secondary school age kids in particular have had highest rates in ONS. Both last autumn and this summer. 5/8

The issue isn't that schools are worse than other crowded indoor spaces where people spend lots of time (e.g. workplaces). It's that almost all school age kids spend hours in these places every weekday during term time & are almost all unvaccinated. 6/8

The biggest conclusion of the PHE study is that community rates really matter for school age kids. But England's explicit policy is to allow very high community rates! Which implies ongoing high rates in kids, particularly once they go back to school. 7/8

As the European Centre for Disease Control advises, when prevalence is high & kids are unprotected by vax, we owe it to them to make the places they spend the majority of their days as safe as possible! I can't understand why this is controversial.

ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/… 8/8

PS and many of the mitigations present last summer term (bubbles, isolation, some mask wearing) will not be there next term. And although they helped, they weren't enough (see massive spikes in July).